Attacks may signal shift in al Qaeda's strategy
Terrorist group seems ready to challenge Saudi monarchy
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Most of the people killed and wounded in Saturday's bombing were Arabs and Muslims.
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Analysts say Saudi Arabia is now a target of an Islamist movement it once supported.
The U.S. is sending a mixed message to Saudi Arabia in the wake of Saturday's bombing.
Saudi security officials expect another terrorist attack at any time.
Scenes of destruction after the Riyadh bombing Saturday.
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(CNN) -- The suicide car bombings in Saudi Arabia in May and over the past weekend indicate the al Qaeda terrorist organization has broadened its strategy, according to diplomats and analysts.
"It's quite clear to me that al Qaeda wants to take down the royal family and government of Saudi Arabia," said U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, currently traveling in the region.
Osama bin Laden, of course, has been calling for the overthrow of the Saudi government for years.
But his rationale has been that starting just after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990, the Saudis invited the United States to base troops and aircraft in Islam's holiest land.
The latest attacks come after the United States has significantly reduced its military presence in the country, and in both cases, most of the dead were Arabs or non-Arab Muslims.
Of the 23 people killed May 12 in the bombings of several housing complexes in Riyadh, only nine were Americans. Saturday night's car bombing in which 17 people died targeted a mostly Arab neighborhood.
The Saudi government attributed both bombings to al Qaeda and intensified its efforts to root out terrorist cells, arresting hundreds of suspects and confiscating weapons.
Although that may have had the added bonus of easing some of the strain in U.S.-Saudi relations since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, some say it stirred more internal resentments.
"This is a deeply polarized society. There are very large groups who, if they don't support violence, are certainly deeply opposed to Saudi Arabia's relationship with America," said Paul Eedle, a London, England-based journalist who has written extensively about al Qaeda and terrorism.
"On the other hand, you have liberal, Westernized people who command much of business, the professions and the media. This is a very deeply split society."
Indications of attacks
The London-based Arab weekly Al-Majalla said Tuesday it received an e-mail in which al Qaeda claimed responsibility for Saturday's bombing.
In the past, such claims have been followed up on a Web site experts say is run by al Qaeda. That has not happened this time, but a statement on the Web site the day after the attack was titled "Preparations for this blow."
While it did not directly address Saturday's bombing, "It was an incitement to supporters of al Qaeda to wage the jihad in Saudi Arabia. It had a slightly defensive note," said Eedle, who translated the message for CNN.
One of several people detained by Saudi authorities in the aftermath of Saturday's bombing told investigators that al Qaeda mistakenly thought its target was a neighborhood housing Americans, Saudi government sources told CNN.
But Saudi government spokesman Nail Al-Jubeir discounted that idea.
"If their intent is to kill Americans, it doesn't answer the question as why are they involved in activities in Mecca," Al-Jubeir said. "Why do they have bomb factories in the holy city of Mecca that only Muslims go to? Why do they have traps in Mecca?"
Eedle said al Qaeda has been somewhat on the defensive since the suicide attacks in May and has tried to regain the advantage in the propaganda war.
It sought to win followers by putting out a slickly produced hourlong video posted to the Web site last month.
Four people identified as among the May suicide bombers appeared on camera, and an audio recording was played that purported to be from some of the attackers whose voices were monitored by cell phone as they carried out the bombings.
One of the bombers hinted at further attacks within Saudi Arabia and justified them by calling the Saudi government "un-Islamic."
Mohammed bin Shadhaf al-Shahri said, "There is no Islam in this government, it is the government of lies and evil, and it is this government that betrays our religion. Today's war is a war against all this."
Risky strategy
An online magazine that experts say is associated with al Qaeda, called Path to Jihad, acknowledged that launching attacks on Saudi soil was not without consequence for the group.
In it, Abd Al-Aziz bin 'Issa bin Abd Al-Mohsen Al-Muqren, also known as Abu Hajjer, addressed the controversy.
"Jihad members and lovers of Mujahedeen were split," he wrote. "There were those who said we must attack the invading forces that defile the land of the two holy places, and that we must turn the Americans' concerns to themselves and their bases, so they would not take off from there to crush Muslim lands and countries, one by one.
"There were others who said we had to preserve the security of this base and this country [i.e. Saudi Arabia], from which we recruit the armies, from which we take the youth, from which we get the [financial] backing. It must therefore remain safe," Abu Hajjer wrote.
Abu Hajjer is wanted by the Saudi authorities, who say he was one of those who planned the May suicide attacks.
Eedle said al Qaeda has justified its actions in Saudi Arabia by claiming they were defensive in nature and that the recent bombing shows the group's true intentions.
"I've no doubt the people in the favor of violence have won the debate. There was a clear statement on November 5 signed by al Qaeda explaining in great detail what it was doing in Saudi Arabia," Eedle said.
But as CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen pointed out, the decision underscores the depth of al Qaeda's resolve against Western influence in the Islamic world.
"They are prepared to take this fight ... right to the heart of the Saudi kingdom, and I think we can expect more of the same, unfortunately," said Bergen, author of "Holy War, Inc.: Inside the Secret World of Osama bin Laden."
CNN's Nic Robertson, Mimi Mees, Mike Boettcher and Henry Schuster contributed to this report.
