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Sharon's coalition may affect peace moves
By Jerrold Kessel
JERUSALEM (CNN) -- The frigid blast that blew across the political landscape Monday wasn't a winter front moving through: It was the chilly realization that many stalwarts of Israeli politics had been left out in the cold as Prime Minister Ariel Sharon forged a right-leaning governing coalition. First out will be Israel's ultra-Orthodox religious parties, which for the first time in a quarter century will not be at the center of an Israeli coalition. Instead of relying on the Orthodox, his natural allies, Sharon has put together a coalition that leans heavily on their ideological opposites, the Shinui and its secular leader Tommy Lapid. The third coalition partner is the right-wing National Religious Party. In doing so, Sharon is creating something of a revolution in domestic politics. Shinui scored a major upset in last month's election, winning 15 seats and finishing third to Sharon's Likud party, which has 40 seats. Together with the NRP's six seats, this coalition would give Sharon the bare minimum he needs for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Sharon plans to present his new coalition for parliamentary approval Thursday, but the Likud continues to negotiate with the far-right National Union, which has seven seats. "If Sharon agrees to the National Union coming into his government, it will be an entirely different kettle of fish," said Israeli analyst Chemi Shalev. "He will almost certainly not have a majority for the kind of diplomatic moves envisaged by President Bush in laying out his doctrine for Middle East peacemaking last year, to which Mr. Sharon says he subscribes. "If it is only the three parties in the coalition, Likud, Shinui and NRP, then Mr. Sharon will be in a position to line up with future U.S. diplomacy and also leave the door open for the Labor Party to come in at a [later] date." For now, Shinui is critical in counterbalancing the influence of the hawkish NRP, many of whose constituents are among the secular community on the hard right of Israeli politics. "It is important that Shinui is there," said Lapid, "to make sure this is a balanced government." Even now the two junior partners in the projected coalition are saying different things about what the government will do on the contentious issue of settlements. Lapid said he has a commitment from Sharon that there will be no expansion of settlements. The NRP leader, Effie Eitam, said that the coalition policy guidelines "will include absolutely no reference to removing or freezing settlements." Either way, Palestinians said they are unimpressed. "Sharon's new government is a government that is for maintaining occupation and continuing with settlement activity," said chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erakat. "The link with the NRP indicates clearly that Mr. Sharon means to put the peace process again on hold." After Likud's resounding election triumph, Sharon said he wanted a broad government. Still he seems satisfied with the present complexion as he posits himself as the center marker in a centrist government. "That's an illusion," said Labor Party leader Amram Mitzna, another man who is out in the cold. He said that by choosing the NRP, Sharon has made plain where he is going in a potential peace process. In preliminary talks over the weekend with Sharon, Mitzna said that the prime minister refused to commit himself to practical peace moves, not just declarations, and thus he refuses to lead Labor into the coalition. Mitzna is under fire from others in Labor who say the party should be in the coalition to try to moderate Sharon. But critics of the prime minister said the burden of proof is on him, and the complexion of his projected coalition will make it difficult to move toward a Palestinian state, which Bush had declared a critical element in future peacemaking. Sharon insists that if and when the time comes, he will make what he calls "painful compromises for peace." For now, he contends the burden of proof rests with the Palestinians. Israeli radio political analyst Hanan Crystal said, "No one knows if this is genuine or if he is bluffing. But one thing is clear, he is the king. He personally can decide where to take Israel's policies." So long as Israel needs to go on battling Palestinian-initiated violence, Sharon argues, and so long as Palestinian leadership has not been reformed, he said, there can be no real move back from conflict to negotiations. Sharon is said to believe that what he needs to do now on the question of peacemaking --especially until the United States redirects its attention from Iraq to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict -- is to satisfy Bush's expectations. Sharon aides said the prime minister believes he has the government that can do so.
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