Serbs vote in crucial poll
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A woman passes election posters in Belgrade.
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BELGRADE, Serbia-Montenegro (Reuters) -- Polls have opened in Serbia with voters to elect a new parliament, with resurgent hardliners pitted against pro-European reformers.
The Radical Party of nationalist Vojislav Seselj -- indicted by the U.N. tribunal for alleged war crimes in the 1990s Balkan wars -- is expected to become parliament's largest single party.
But analysts believe the pro-democracy politicians who toppled Milosevic as Yugoslav leader will still be able to prevent the Radicals from grabbing power, as they are forecast to win a majority between them in the 250-seat assembly.
Socialists, headed by ousted president Slobodan Milosevic, who is on trial in The Hague, are also expected to pass a five-percent threshold for entering the legislature.
Voting got under way in winter weather at 7 a.m. (0600 GMT), with polling stations due to close at 8 p.m.
Early results are expected on Sunday evening.
"The most likely scenario is a democratic grand coalition," said Ambassador Maurizio Massari of the Belgrade mission of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
But with deep divisions on main issues, such a coalition may struggle to survive and new elections could become necessary before the four-year mandate ends, commentators say.
"The forecast is that it will be just as unstable and unclear as before, maybe even worse," said Milan, a pensioner, as he cast his ballot in downtown Belgrade.
No milk and honey
Whoever gets to power will face daunting challenges in one of Europe's poorest countries, with those lucky enough to have a job living on an average gross salary of around $300 per month.
"I don't expect milk and honey. I just hope I will find a job," said Biljana Manasijevic, 50, as she voted.
The Radicals, promising cheaper bread, have capitalised on widespread discontent that three years of Western-style change failed to significantly improve many people's living standards.
Seselj, who once said the enemy should have their eyes gouged out with rusty spoons, is an old ally of Milosevic and like him accused of war crimes during the Croatian and Bosnian conflicts that tore apart old socialist Yugoslavia in 1991-95.
"People do not vote for the Radicals because they like them but because they are poor," said pro-Western opposition leader Miroljub Labus of the liberal G17 Plus party.
Like the outgoing centre-left coalition, the new government is likely to soon face Western demands to cooperate with The Hague or risk losing crucial aid, especially to arrest and hand over wartime Bosnian Serb military chief Ratko Mladic.
But a strong Radical Party in opposition demanding that Belgrade stops sending Serb suspects to the tribunal would increase pressure on the authorities to stand up to the West.
Former Yugoslav president and moderate nationalist Vojislav Kostunica, whose Democratic Party of Serbia is expected to play a key role in a possible pro-European coalition, has during the campaign described The Hague as a possible threat to stability.
"It will definitely be a more nationalistic government," one Western diplomat said. "Mladic will be one of its first major challenges."
However, he and others still expect a Kostunica-led coalition, possibly including G17 Plus, to continue on a pro-reform path aimed at eventual European Union membership. "There is no way back," one European envoy said.
Copyright 2003
Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
