Hindu nationalists lead polls
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Voters in New Delhi queue on Monday.
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NEW DELHI, India (Reuters) -- India's ruling Hindu nationalists are expected to take power in at least one state, maybe three, gains that could spur party members to press for early national polls.
Counting for last Monday's elections in the northern states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi begins at 8 a.m. (0230 GMT), with results expected later Thursday.
With a positive political climate fed by low interest rates and a bumper monsoon, some analysts say pressure could mount within the BJP to call national elections as early as February or March instead of going full term to October if it wins three of the four states now held by the opposition Congress party.
Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, entwined in a delicate peace process with Pakistan, has vowed to go full term and BJP officials have sought to dampen speculation of an early poll.
"But if he wins three of these, the pressure on Vajpayee will go up," political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan told Reuters. "There has been a group in the BJP pressing for early elections."
Opinion polls before the elections showed the BJP wresting power from Congress only in the biggest state, Madhya Pradesh.
Congress is expected to easily retain Delhi, but exit polls -- which have a shaky track record -- and other signs point to a photo finish in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.
"They are very close to call," said Rangarajan. "It may well be a total draw."
In Rajasthan, the BJP won the rare public support of a key royal family and the Congress angered public servants, who staff polling booths, by not paying them. Local media have reported booth officials guiding voters confused by the new electronic voting machines to press the button for the BJP.
The four contests were fought largely on local personalities and issues such as electricity and water shortages.
But they allowed the BJP and Congress to test their campaign machinery and tactics and a strong showing for either would boost confidence in the run-up to the national election, analysts say.
In a party-room speech for the start of the winter session of parliament, Vajpayee told BJP lawmakers on Wednesday to start gearing up for the poll, but gave no hint if it would be early.
Besides Vajpayee's pledge to go full term, analysts say two other critical factors work against an early election.
The BJP is in disarray in the largest state, Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for 80 of the federal parliament's 545 members.
And the large southern state of Andhra Pradesh, ruled by a key BJP ally, will also go to the polls early in the new year, clouding the atmosphere.
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