China claims a big win over Taiwan
By Senior China Analyst Willy Wo-Lap Lam
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Bush and Wen's agreement may signal a change in U.S.-Sino relations.
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(CNN) -- "We've finally got the Americans right where we want them," said a senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo member in response to President George W. Bush's expression of clear-cut opposition to Taipei's apparent efforts to change the status quo of the Taiwan Strait.
The Chinese leadership's interpretation of Bush's brief public statement, which will likely be disputed by Washington, has far-reaching significance for cross-Straits and for Sino-U.S. relations.
At least from Beijing's viewpoint, Bush's switch from "not supporting" to "opposing" Taiwan separatism -- as well as ancillary steps such as conducting plebiscites -- could be used to justify harsh steps, including military ones, the CCP leadership may take against the self-ruled island.
Beijing is convinced that Washington's abandonment of the long-standing policy of "strategic ambiguity" over Taiwan carries much more than semantic or symbolic significance.
"If Chen Shui-bian were to disturb the status quo via holding referendums and other means, and we were to respond militarily, the U.S. can't raise objections let alone interfere," a party source quoted the Politburo member as saying.
"After all, Bush has already indicated unambiguous opposition to attempts by Taipei to change the status quo."
The CCP leadership thinks Bush's White House statement has greatly watered down his pledge in March 2001 that the U.S. would do "whatever it took" to defend Taiwan.
"Washington's defense of Taiwan is conditional upon Taipei not taking pre-emptive steps on sovereignty and statehood issues," the party source added.
Sources close to the Wen-Bush talks said the Chinese were also happy that the U.S. president had, in many cases, used almost the exact terms and nomenclature favored by Chinese diplomats such as Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing, who was in Washington last month.
For example, Bush followed Beijing's usual practice of referring to President Chen as "the leader of Taiwan."
Beijing's euphoria over having grabbed the moral high ground over the Taiwan debate was also evident from the uncharacteristically high-sounding remarks of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.
"This is a major foreign-policy achievement," said the usually low-key, self-effacing Wen the day after he had extracted the statement from Bush.
Bush used the language favored by diplomats such as Li Zhaoxing, above.
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Not to be overlooked is that apart from Taiwan, Wen and Bush have laid the foundation for a quasi-partnership between the two countries over issues ranging from fighting terrorism to trade.
Before the Kosovo crisis of 1999, during which the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was "mistakenly" bombed by U.S. jetfighters, former presidents Bill Clinton and Jiang Zemin liked to say that both capitals were crafting a "strategic partnership."
For the past two years, Bush and President Hu Jintao have moved down a rung and characterized bilateral ties a "constructive cooperative relationship."
Praising Chinese help in America's global war on terrorism, however, Bush last week called the two countries "partners in diplomacy."
With his own re-election campaign under way, Bush needs a solid triumph on the global anti-terrorism front to silence critics of his foreign and defense policies.
Diplomatic sources in Beijing and Washington said in recent talks with top U.S. officials, Premier Wen, Foreign Minister Li and other senior cadres had pledged to put more pressure on the Kim Jong II regime to dismantle its nuclear weapons program.
The sources said Beijing had, to boost their leverage over Pyongyang, recently sent a phalanx of delegations of economic and agricultural advisers to North Korea.
And senior Chinese diplomats have cited the speedy fall of the Saddam Hussein dynasty to effectively drive home to Pyongyang the possible disastrous consequences of their game of nuclear brinkmanship.
Wen and other Fourth Generation leaders have aggressively used China's fast-expanding economic and military might to press for diplomatic advantages.
While talking about foreign policy in the 21st century, Wen indicated during his stopover in Mexico City last weekend that the "Cold War mentality" had become obsolete.
"What matter in international relations now are national interests and economic prowess," Wen said.
According to Chinese strategists, the underlying reason behind Bush's relatively accommodating stance on Taiwan is China's status as a quasi-superpower in economic, military and diplomatic fields.
