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Beijing tightens its grip on Hong Kong
By CNN Senior China Analyst Willy Wo-Lap Lam
HONG KONG, China (CNN) -- Despite Beijing's decision to postpone Hong Kong's controversial national security legislation, it is wrong to assume the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership has become more tolerant toward the territory's democratic aspirations. In fact, disturbing signs have emerged that relative hardliners associated with ex-president Jiang Zemin have assumed control over Beijing's policy toward the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR). These developments were evidenced by Vice-President Zeng Qinghong's meeting last weekend with leaders of Hong Kong's pro-Beijing party, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB). Zeng, also a Politburo Standing Committee member, enunciated Beijing's unstinting support for Hong Kong Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa. The Vice-President expressed the wish that the DAB, which he called "the flag of patriotism" and "the largest and most influential [political] group in Hong Kong," would do well in crucial Legislative Council (Legco) elections next year. Zeng, a key Jiang adviser, added that Beijing would continue to prop up Hong Kong's problematic economy under the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) between the mainland and the SAR. For example, mainland tourists coming to Hong Kong may be allowed to carry more cash -- and even to buy SAR properties. Most significantly, Zeng and cadres with Hong Kong responsibilities including State Councilor Tang Jiaxun, another Jiang protege, have privately indicated Beijing will not accept the pro-democracy camp's demand for universal suffrage elections by 2007. Economic tiesIt seems clear that the CCP leadership is relying on the time-tested business and united front cards to maintain stability in the SAR -- and to sideline the democrats. After more than 500,000 Hong Kong residents demonstrated on July 1 against the perceived misrule of Tung, Beijing has announced one package after another of special deals to bolster the SAR economy. "Beijing's reading is that most of the anti-Tung protesters hit the streets because of economic reasons such as unemployment -- not because of pro-democracy sentiments," said a source close to Beijing's Hong Kong policy-making establishment. "The leadership is reassured that after the announcement of CEPA-related goodies, Tung's popularity ratings have improved." Business and professional groupings have been given tacit pledges that in return for supporting Beijing's SAR policy, they will be the first to benefit from commercial opportunities up north. Politically, Beijing is concentrating on ensuring that the DAB, which badly trailed the Hong Kong Democracy Party during Legco elections in 2000, will do well in polls scheduled for next September. The pro-mainland party has lost popular support owing to its backing for the draconian national security bill -- and its claim that July 1 demonstrators had been "misled" by anti-Beijing forces. 'Politically motivated'Tung's surprising announcement last Friday about postponing national-security legislation -- to possibly after the 2004 polls -- is seen as a ploy to enable the DAB to at least temporarily hide its support for a bill perceived as hurting civil liberties. According to outspoken Catholic Bishop Joseph Zen, the postponement decision was "politically motivated with the outcome of the [2004] elections in mind." That Beijing will not entertain Hong Kong democrats' demands is clear from Zeng's taking over the SAR portfolio in early July. While major decisions affecting the SAR have to be endorsed by President Hu Jintao, Zeng has assumed day-to-day control over Hong Kong policy. A key Zeng role is to protect Jiang's legacy, including the latter's SAR-related decisions. A Western diplomat said Jiang was nervous about being criticized for handpicking Tung in 1996 -- and for insisting that he be given a second term in 2002. "Jiang has put Zeng in charge of Hong Kong for fear that [President] Hu may depart from the Jiang line, by for example, sidelining Tung or picking a new SAR leader in a year or two," the diplomat said. Democracy quashed?
In addition to Zeng's ascendancy, other developments have pointed to Beijing's unwillingness to accommodate Hong Kong residents' democratic inclinations. Without an exception, SAR political and social groupings invited to Beijing the past month are either "patriotic" bodies or business groupings whose members have substantial China investments. By contrast, in the 1980s, late patriarch Deng Xiaoping and his colleagues were much more willing to meet politicians with liberal leanings. Said veteran Hong Kong-based China watcher Johnny Lau: "the Beijing leadership should try to revive the relatively tolerant atmosphere of the 1980s." Following time-honored united front tactics, however, Beijing's representatives in Hong Kong have continued to marginalize and vilify a number of pro-democracy, anti-Tung activists. Pro-Beijing politicians and media in Hong Kong have since mid-August focused their firepower on Legco member Emily Lau, who had attended a conference in Taipei organized by a think tank under former president Lee Teng-hui. These left-wing forces want Lau impeached because of her view that Taiwanese should be free to choose their future. Said Hong Kong University political scientist Sonny Lo: "Beijing is sticking to its traditional tactic of uniting whosoever can be united -- and at the same time isolating its enemies." Moreover, Beijing has made plans to combat eventualities such as rioting or mass unrest in the SAR. Thus, the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison was given instructions in early July to prepare itself for possible outbreaks of massive disorder and other anti-Beijing activities in the SAR. Sources in Guangdong Province said members of the Hong Kong Garrison had recently undertaken anti-riot exercises in the neighboring city of Shenzhen in the event that the PLA might be called upon to quash "anti-Beijing disturbances" in the SAR.
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