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Beijing cornered by HK people power
Willy Wo-Lap Lam, CNN Senior China Analyst
HONG KONG, China (CNN) -- The display of people power in Hong Kong last week will likely be cited by the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) conservative elements as a reason for not pressing ahead with political liberalization in China. In an internal speech during student demonstrations in late 1986 -- deemed a precursor to the great 1989 democracy movement -- Deng Xiaoping warned his younger colleagues about "Polish disease." The late patriarch was referring to the infectious nature of the labor and pro-democracy crusade in Poland spearheaded by Solidarity leader Lech Walesa. Political sources in Beijing said what had already become known in some quarters as "the Hong Kong democracy disease" could be set up as a "negative example" for not going ahead with Western-style democracy in the mainland. After all, it was the 500,000-strong rally in the Special Administration Region (SAR) that forced Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa to make one concession after another regarding the draconian national security bill. After Tung reversed a decision last Monday and agreed to postpone the ant-subversion legislation, pro-democracy forces in the SAR are gearing up for more mass-based street actions to fight for universal-suffrage polls to pick legislators and even the chief executive. While it was relatively easy in the mid-1980s for Beijing to impose a news blackout on the Polish Solidarity movement, the Internet and other new media have made old-style censorship impossible. The July 1 demo was not reported by the mainland's mainstream media. And apart from brief statements by the foreign ministry spokesman and a legal committee of the National People's Congress, the authorities have kept mum over the biggest crisis to have hit the SAR government since 1997. However, intellectual circles in Beijing and other big cities are abuzz with discussions about the ramifications of the pivotal event. "It is well-nigh the first time on Chinese territory that 'people power' has forced the authorities to make a big concession," a Beijing-based social scientist said. "Particularly if the pro-democracy forces in the SAR are to up the ante and mobilize the masses to clamor for real elections, there will be a sizeable ripple effect upon mainland intellectuals' campaign for a quicker pace of reform," he said. It is an interesting coincidence that July 1 marked to some extent a setback for liberalization in Chinese politics. Up until late May, there were expectations that President and Party Chief Hu would deliver a major address on "democracy within the party" to mark the CCP's 82nd birthday. Hu was tipped to make pledges about more transparency in decision-making -- and more leeway for cadres to choose provincial and municipal party secretaries. However, the term "intra-party democracy," which figured prominently in the first draft of the July 1 speech, did not make it into the final version. Instead, Hu merely underscored the importance of studying ex-president Jiang Zemin's "Theory of the Three Represents" (that the party represents the foremost productivity, the most advanced culture and the masses' interest). And while Hu had given the Three Represents Theory a new twist by emphasizing the "close to the masses" credo, he did not go beyond hackneyed slogans such as the fact that "the party's basis is serving the public, and administration is for the sake of the people." Last Saturday, the official China News Service ran a long article by the Vice-President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Li Shenming, on why "China must never implement the multi-party system of the West."
Li warned that if China were to give up CCP leadership, "the mountains and rivers will break apart, and all life will come to nought." For the time being, Hu and his aides are expected to confine themselves to less controversial reforms such as changes in the constitution and the legal system. On the Hong Kong front, while it is no secret that both Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao -- who left Hong Kong shortly before the July 1 demo -- have a low assessment of Tung's abilities, they have little choice but to continue propping up his administration. It is true that Hu and Wen have built their legitimacy on being close to the masses -- a quality that Wen demonstrated with great effectiveness during his 48-hour SAR tour. However, as Chinese University of Hong Kong Sinologist Wu Guoguang pointed out, "the Hu-Wen team cannot afford to be seen as making too many concessions on sensitive issues such as the national security bill." Wu said that up to now, Hu was unassailable on Hong Kong policy because Tung and most Hong Kong-related cadres were appointees of Jiang and his Shanghai Faction. "However, if the pro-democratic forces in the SAR are seen as gaining more ground due to Beijing's 'softness', the Hu-Wen team will come under heavy flak from the conservatives, including Jiang's associates," Wu added. Moreover, a much speeded-up pace of democratization in the SAR might not suit Hu's purpose because it may upset his program of cautious, incremental liberalization for the mainland.
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