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U.S. 'won't move until inauguration'
Marianne Bray
HONG KONG, China -- The United States is unlikely to move towards ending a nuclear spat on the Korean peninsula until after South Korea's new president is inaugurated, a U.S. analyst has said. "Until South Korea ends its political transition, it might be perceived to be a little unseemly for us (America) to move forward," Richard Bush, a director from U.S. policy group The Brookings Institution, told a gathering in Hong Kong. His comments came as a nuclear dispute between North Korea and the United States neared its fifth month, with few signs of an end in sight as both nations jostle for position. In recent days, Pyongyang has upped its belligerent rhetoric, threatening to quit an armistice that ended the Korean War in 1953 if the U.S. imposed a naval blockade or other economic sanctions because of its suspected nuclear-weapons program. North Korea has repeatedly said it wants direct talks with the United States and has urged Washington to sign a non-aggression pact. The United States has played down the North's escalating words and has thus far refused bilateral talks. Instead, Washington favors multilateral talks with East Asian allies to push Pyongyang to curb its nuclear ambitions. But with Pyongyang's move to drag South Korea into the fray with its threat to end the 1953 armistice, the United States is keen to use the inauguration of South Korean President-elect Roh Moo-hyun to generate a new mood. Roh is due to be sworn in on February 25. Secret programThe nuclear spat began in October last year, when the United States discovered the communist North had a clandestine program. "The administration has been struggling ever since to cope with the situation," say Bush. Seeing its best chance in 50 years to upset a U.S. administration, the impoverished North began using its nuclear program not only as a bargaining chip for concessions, but as a way of splitting any U.S. coalition and deepening rifts within Washington, says Bush. Pyongyang reactivated nuclear facilities frozen under a 1994 pact with Washington, and withdrew from a nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The reclusive regime said these were self-defense measures forced on it by the 'hostile' policy of the United States that branded the North part of an "axis of evil." But following Roh's inauguration later this month, Bush said it was likely the United States would make a move to defuse the crisis, initiating a conversation with the secretive state. While North Korea's response is likely to be negative, it should set off a flurry of diplomatic efforts with allies on both sides, he added. "Because this is a very complex bargaining game going on, the U.S. position is more likely to prevail if North Korea sees that Japan, South Korea, China and Russia are lined up behind us," said Bush. "If they can see they can't split this coalition, they're more likely to come around." Chinese diplomatic efforts entered a new phase on Tuesday with China's foreign minister meeting his North Korean counterpart to discuss the nuclear standoff. China has offered to host talks in Beijing, and the United States would likely be keen to follow that up, Bush added. Japan too has sent some very public signals to the North, with the country's defense minister saying last week that Tokyo would use military force if it knew Pyongyang was planning a missile strike on Japan.
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