Former ambassador: North Korea engaging in 'rhetorical brinkmanship'
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James Lilley
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(CNN) -- The International Atomic Energy Agency found Wednesday that North Korea is in breach of international agreements, and recommended the U.N. Security Council consider action. North Korea has announced that it would react to any sanctions as an act of war.
CNN Anchor Heidi Collins spoke to James Lilley, former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, Wednesday.
COLLINS: I'm wondering, is this mere rhetoric, or do they really mean it?
LILLEY: It's probably 90 percent rhetoric, 10 percent probably some kind of action. This is -- it's constant with their brinkmanship, rhetorical brinkmanship, yes.
COLLINS: As you probably know, in a vote 31-0, just a little while ago, the IAEA did pass a resolution today, declaring that North Korea is in breach of the U.N. safeguards, and sent this issue on to the U.N. Security Council. What can they do?
LILLEY: I think that's a very positive move, particularly the unanimous vote. The North Koreans have said the U.N. is nothing more than a tool of the United States, but 31 countries voted with us on this issue. What can the U.N. do, Security Council do? I think, first of all, get a resolution of condemnation of the North Korean behavior. Second, I would steer away from sanctions right now. I would leave it up to each individual nation to take whatever action they feel necessary to curtail a proliferation and development of these weapons, which would then allow us the ability to interdict their ships and perhaps their aircraft.
COLLINS: All right, the European Union foreign policy chief is headed to North Korea possibly this week. Do you think that he'll have any success in negotiating at this point, even after this move and this news we heard today?
LILLEY: Well, I think all sorts of people trying to talk to them. Russian Vice Foreign Minister had six hours with Kim Jong-Il. Australians went there. Other people went there. The results was basically zero. My own sense is they're saying we have to deal with the United States directly. We won't deal with anybody else on this whole problem. Don't get caught in that trap. We go at it the multilateral way with our friends and allies, Japan, China, South Korea and the United States, and the EU, and we make a common front, then the United States is ready to deal with them.
COLLINS: So that brings me to my next point. The Bush administration has not commented about this yet. What do you think they need to do? Wait until the U.N. handles it, and then possibly comment, or just keep quiet?
LILLEY: What we're doing now is behind the scenes, more or less. We're going to every capital that is important, namely Seoul, Tokyo, Beijing and Europe, and talking to them about somehow coordinating our activities, incentives and disincentives for the North Koreans to behave. This is the sort of thing we work out. It's very complex, because people have different agendas.
But I think they can pull it together and face the North Koreans with a common front. We would probably be the tough guy on weapons of mass destruction, South Korea and China probably a little more give on the economic front. Carrot and stick, bring them in. If they go through the nuclear program, if they carry it out, their aid, their support, is cut way back. And these people face a huge problem this winter, perhaps 6 million people face some form of starvation. They've got to have help. They're desperate to get it fast.
COLLINS: Ambassador Lilly, last question for you. If you would just take a moment to compare the situation with Iraq and North Korea, what do you see as the main difference in handling this? Whether it be, I would imagine diplomatically would obviously be your area of expertise.
LILLEY: Well, I would say, first of all, the major difference is there's no military option in North Korea. If you ever were to take out the Yongbun area, where they have that plutonium processing, they would dump probably 500,000 shells on Seoul and kill millions of people. You can't have it. Second, you have economic leverage over North Korea. It's a failed state. Its economy is in terrible shape, unlike Iraq. It's surrounded by very powerful neighbors, unlike Iraq. It's a very different country, and you have to handle it very differently than Iraq. Your leverage here is economic. In Iraq, it's military. So you do handle these things in different ways.
