|
  |
|
 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wen's plan for action
By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
(CNN) -- Efforts to maintain stability and national security, rather than reform, will likely dominate the first few years of the administration of premier-in-waiting Wen Jiabao. This is despite the fact that Wen, a protégé of outgoing Premier Zhu Rongji, has overall reformist credentials. According to cadres involved in the preparation of the new administration, due to begin mid-March, the prospective head of the State Council will unveil four initiatives at the upcoming National People's Congress (NPC). These include market-oriented reforms in agriculture, state-owned enterprises, and banking and finance, as well as streamlining the structure of the central and regional governments. For example, Wen has in recent meetings on the financial establishment voiced support for giving licenses to more private banks -- and listing several state banks on the stock market. The veteran vice-premier also favors curtailing government fiats, including doing away with many of the functions of the State Development Planning Commission, deemed a holdover of the ancient regime. However, since inducted to the party's Politburo Standing Committee last November, Wen and like-minded moderates such as Communist party General Secretary Hu Jintao have spent most of their time on promoting national security and stability. 'Economic security'While security on the foreign and military fronts will be under the direct leadership of President Jiang Zemin and Hu, Wen will have pivotal input on "economic security" and social stability. In the past two months, Wen has dwelled at length on financial security. This refers to ways and means to avert fiscal crises that may be caused by deficit financing to stimulate economic growth -- as well as opening up the financial markets to multinationals. While officials such as Premier Zhu have claimed that total public debts are merely 16% or so of GDP, Western economists estimate the figure is more than 120%. In the past five years, Zhu has relied mainly on deficit financing -- including raising bonds worth several hundreds of billions of yuan -- to bankroll infrastructure projects and to stimulate domestic consumption. "Beijing has since the late 1990s issued at least 150 billion yuan of bonds annually," said a Beijing-based member of an economics think-tank. "Quite a few officials and government advisers pointed out earlier this year that no more than 120 billion yuan's worth of bonds should be issued." And a number of parliamentarians have in the run-up to the NPC suggested that Zhu-style "pro-active fiscal policies" be rectified to avoid a financial crunch. Risk managementWhile being famous for his caution, Wen has nonetheless indicated that deficit financing should be continued to ensure a 7% growth rate -- deemed the minimal level to prevent unemployment from worsening and to maintain socio-political stability. In a series of national meetings on financial issues last month, Wen highlighted the importance of lowering fiscal risks as more multinational companies in the banking, insurance and securities sectors would be allowed into the domestic market. "Finance is the core of a modern economy," Wen said, "We must be able to forestall any crisis in the financial sector." The vice-premier pointed out that banks must adopt market-oriented management techniques and stop old practices such as making government-mandated loans that are commercially unviable. However, Wen's apparent backing of old-style state financing of job-creation projects does not augur well for thorough-going market reforms in the near future. 'Strategic assets'In another conference, the 60-year-old Wen underscored the imperative of safeguarding "strategic assets" such as petroleum in the face of the Iraqi crisis and other global uncertainties. A senior officer in the State Development and Planning Commission said earlier this month the country would work toward building up a "strategic stockpile" of 20 million tons of petroleum, or a month's worth of supplies. The Chinese media has reported that the central government will spend upwards of US$100 billion to set up a "petroleum security system" in the coming two decades. Similar strategies on preserving resources deemed vital to Chinese modernization -- from water to uranium -- are expected to be thrashed out. Both Wen and Hu have also been focusing on rencai anquan (literally "talent security"). This means, in effect, preventing China's best-trained personnel -- particularly those in areas that have a direct bearing on national and economic security -- from being snapped up by multinationals and foreign government agencies. While brain drain has been a perennial problem, Chinese governmental and business units have been largely successful in luring back overseas-educated professionals and academics. For example, out of the nearly 400,000 who have left China for studies in the U.S. and other countries since the mid-1980s, an estimated 140,000 have returned to work mainly in coastal cities. It is understood, however, that the Wen administration is drafting measures to effectively retain top-flight talents in high technology and military sciences as well as economics and business. Cracking crimeMost significantly, Beijing is pulling out the stops to uphold law and order through targeting hard-core criminals and anti-government groupings ranging from dissidents to separatists among Xinjiang's Uighur ethnic minority. The authorities earlier this week sent out a national circular on seven goals in promoting socio-political stability through "comprehensive curative and management work in law and order." First and foremost is the continuation of the "Strike Hard" campaign against underground gangs, triad societies as well as "evil cults such as the Falun Gong." Moreover, a "synthesized police-and-the-masses network" incorporating the police, the People's Armed Police, neighborhood committees, vigilantes, and other volunteers will be put together to boost the government's ability to crack down on felons and troublemakers. New grassroots units specializing in reconciliation of conflicts as well as collecting intelligence on criminals and miscreants will be formed to nip challenges to the regime in the bud. As Politburo member in charge of law and order Luo Gan, an archconservative, pointed out last month in connection with strengthening stability: "We must combine hitting out [at destabilizing elements] and preventing [mishaps], with emphasis being given to prevention." The unprecedented focus being given to security-related operations, however, could sap the new leadership's commitment to opening up the country further.
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
