Poll: Liberals could win Quebec election
MONTREAL (Reuters) -- The pro-Canada Quebec Liberals could win Monday's provincial election thanks to a surge in support from French-speaking voters, according to an opinion poll released Friday.
The CROP poll for La Presse, Le Soleil and the Globe and Mail newspapers put support for the Liberals at 38 percent, compared with 30 percent for the separatist Parti Quebecois, which is seeking to win a third straight term in office.
The conservative Action Deomocratique trails a distant third, with 15 percent support.
It is the second survey within 24 hours pointing to a big shift in public opinion in Canada's mainly French-speaking province in favor of the Liberals.
The results show support for the Liberals up 8 percentage point from a mid-campaign CROP poll. Backing for the Parti Quebecois is down 6 points.
"Should these numbers hold until the election, the Liberals will certainly form the next government," CROP Vice-President Claude Gauthier told the Globe and Mail. "We might even be witnessing a wave of support for the Liberals that could go up as high as 50 percent of the vote."
If opionions of undecided voters and those who declined to give an opinion were redistributed based on whether they backed or opposed sovereignty, support for the Liberals rose to 46 percent, compared to 33 percent for the Parti Quebecois.
The Globe and Mail said the surge in Liberal support is due almost entirely to a swing among French-speaking voters, who account for more than 80 percent of the Quebec electorate.
Before a March 31 televised debate between Quebec's political leaders, the Parti Quebecois had a 20-point lead over the Liberals among French-speaking voters. That gap has been pared to 5 points with the Parti Quebecois.
CROP polled 1,002 Quebecers between April 2 and April 9. Its results are considered accurate within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The poll showed that two-thirds of Quebecers did not want another referendum on secession from Canada, while support for independence dropped to 38 percent, its lowest level for at least 18 months. Quebecers voted against separation in referendums held in 1980 and 1995.
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