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Forecasters: El Niņo in 'mature stage'Weather phenomenon expected to continue through spring
CAMP SPRINGS, Maryland (CNN) -- This year's El Niņo weather phenomenon is no longer an infant -- in fact, it's nearly over the hill, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday. In its monthly forecast, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said El Niņo has entered its "mature stage" -- essentially declaring that the current El Niņo has reached its peak and could largely play itself out by spring. The agency stuck by previous predictions that this year's El Niņo will be no match for its 1997-1998 counterpart, one of the worst in memory that caused billions of dollars in storm damage on the U.S. West Coast and that triggered catastrophic drought-related fires in Indonesia and Brazil. Over the past several months, NOAA's network of monitoring buoys has detected temperatures as much as 2 degrees Fahrenheit above average in the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean near the South American coast. When those waters periodically warm -- usually about twice a decade -- they trigger a chain reaction of temporary changes in air and water currents over much of the globe, including a trend toward warmer, rainier weather in the Southern and Western United States and drier weather in much of Southeast Asia. However, this month NOAA's monitors report that beneath-the-surface temperatures in the western Pacific have cooled off, heralding that El Niņo's days are numbered. In their monthly written statement, forecasters offered limited predictions for some U.S. regions: • Drier-than-average weather in the Ohio Valley and northern Rockies; • Wetter-than-average conditions throughout the South; • Warmer winter in much of the Northern United States. Heavy rainfall in the South for the past few months, a hallmark of El Niņo weather, has helped lift much of the region out of a four-year drought. Some areas of the West Coast have seen heavy rain and snowfall from a strong series of early winter storms -- also an El Niņo feature. El Niņo is the name given to this weather phenomenon centuries ago by Peruvian fishermen, who often noted warming waters and a change in their fish catch in certain years around Christmastime -- the celebration of the birth of El Niņo, the Christ child.
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