Retailers hope sales add up to predictions
Industry group expects 40 percent rise in online spending
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Thousands of shoppers crowd the Maine Mall in South Portland, Maine, on Friday.
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(CNN) -- Adding up the sales made on the first day of the holiday shopping season, retailers are optimistic that those numbers will increase in the days to come.
"I think they're going to be very strong. I think we're looking at sales that are probably -- my prediction is between 5 and 7 percent over last year," said Michael McAvinue, manager of Detroit Hills Mall.
Excitement and sales drew many to line up at dawn to shop on the day after Thanksgiving.
"It was an adrenaline rush," Imbia Barry, who lost her scarf in the frenzy at a Wal-Mart in Marietta, Georgia, told The Associated Press.
"It was like a football team or something," Jesus Gonzalez, 22, who arrived at a South Texas Wal-Mart by 5:45 a.m., told the AP. "Man, it was crazy."
Tourists from Canada traveled to New York for the Friday frenzy.
"We're coming for the deal and we traveled to come here," a young woman said. "Just the whole hype about it, we're just following everyone else's lead."
Donna Kijack of Wisconsin was outside a famous New York store at 5:45 a.m. so she could snag a novelty item when the store opened at 6.
"I ... came to find water globes about the Macy's parade... come to see what the good deals are and just kind of the ambience of being here and seeing the crowds," Kijack said.
Holiday shopping accounts for 25-40 percent of retailers' annual sales. Low interest rates, tax breaks and a relatively bullish stock market are making Americans more comfortable about spending, said Rosalind Wells, a chief economist for the National Retail Federation.
The Friday after Thanksgiving is one of the busiest shopping days of the year. The volume of sales prompted merchants to call it "Black Friday." The nickname dates to the 19th century, when retailers earned the first profits of the year and switched from red to black ink, according to the NRF.
An NRF study predicts holiday spending will increase by almost 6 percent over last year -- with the average shopper spending $672. Last year, consumers spent an average of $649.
Luxury retailers may have the most to celebrate this year. There are reports that those stores are raising prices. Despite that, shoppers still appeared to be snapping up items at luxury leather retailers and jewelry stores.
"As man whose wife wants him to get her a seven carat diamond, I can vouch for the fact that that is true," actor and economist Ben Stein said.
"And I can tell you that the costs of lots and lots of goods is going to go up. Anything not made in China, I suspect, is going to be going up," he said.
Professional shoppers offer tips
But not all market watchers are predicting increased spending. Compared with 2002, half of holiday shoppers plan to spend the same amount of money, 34 percent plan to spend less and 16 percent plan to spend more, the Consumer Federation of America reported.
Some shoppers are buying online to escape early rising and swelling crowds. Forrester Research predicts online holiday sales will increase 42 percent to $12.2 billion this year.
For those who want the experience of the stores' holiday decorations and the adrenaline rush of being a part of the pack, professional personal shopper Debra Flattery has a few tips.
"The best line of defense? Shop early," she said from Michigan Avenue in Chicago, Illinois. "I guarantee you if you shop anywhere on a Saturday at 3 o'clock, it's going to be jammed," she said.
"Take the day off. Start early. I'd like to say make a list, but if you're not a list maker, it's too late now." Flattery said. "Those people who made lists are already home with their feet up watching the football games today."
Gregg Andrews, East Coast fashion director for Nordstrom, offered insight about gifts for women this season.
"One of the hottest trends of the season is a statement-making handbag, something large, oversized. It's got lots of pattern, lots of detail. Look for names like Lulu Guinness and Isabella Fiore," Andrews said.
"Jewelry has also made a big return this year. We see it on lots of celebrities. Chandelier earrings are a must-have for the season," Andrews said. "The idea of the right-hand ring is very important. And the great little I.D. bracelet. You buy a little band. And then you buy the charms individually, so you can make a message and spell it anything you want."
