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Rumsfeld: War 'not inevitable'But 'only time will tell'
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld Wednesday outlined three scenarios that could avert a war against Iraq: Saddam Hussein leaves voluntarily and is followed by new leadership that abides by international law; Saddam leaves involuntarily; or Saddam adheres to U.N. resolutions. How realistic are any of those possibilities? "Only time will tell," Rumsfeld told reporters during a Pentagon briefing. Rumsfeld made his comments as the Bush administration worked on a second U.N. resolution that would declare Iraq in material breach -- a move that, if passed, could result in military action. The United States is continuing to beef up forces in the Persian Gulf region, with 181,000 troops already there and more en route. (Deployment map) The White House has said a second Security Council resolution would be helpful, but it does not think one is necessary. British Prime Minister Tony Blair has made clear in public comments and private consultations with the White House that he believes a second resolution is imperative. Even as the Bush administration said it would definitely propose a second U.N. Security Council resolution on Iraq, U.S. officials are suggesting that the details of what would be included -- and how it might play out -- are still very much up in the air. (Full story) The drafting of the resolution comes against an increasing wave of international criticism, calling for the Iraq issue to be dealt with by the United Nations. Antiwar protests, both in the United States and overseas, have intensified in recent weeks. (Full story) Rumsfeld said war is "not inevitable, although as the president has said, 'Time is running out.' " He then detailed the three scenarios to avert war. If Saddam left, he said, the new leadership would have to "adhere to and agree with and practice the basic principles that are involved." The U.N. weapons inspectors, Rumsfeld said, will have to decide: "Is Iraq cooperating or not? That is the critical, pivotal, central question in the whole thing." The two chief U.N. weapons inspectors, Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei, will come to their conclusions at some point and "they then will have to have their assessment assessed by the members of the Security Council," Rumsfeld said. "The threat that exists is a very serious one," he added. If war does occur, Rumsfeld said, the United States will make sure that Iraq remains "a single country," keeping a close eye on Kurds in northern Iraq to make sure they do not exploit the situation. "We would intend to have forces in place to see that advantage was not taken of any temporary disorder that could conceivably occur in the conflict," Rumsfeld said. He also accused Saddam of using civilians as "human shields," by constructing mosques near military facilities and using schools, hospitals, orphanages and cultural centers. "These are not tactics of war, they are crimes of war," Rumsfeld said. "Deploying human shields is not a military strategy, it's murder, a violation of the laws of armed conflict and a crime against humanity, and it will be treated as such." A group of civilian volunteers from London arrived in Baghdad Wednesday, joining others already in the Iraqi capital -- a move described by an organizer as a way to make world leaders think twice before bombing and causing "white Western body parts (to fly) around with the Iraqi ones." One British human shield volunteer said his group intended to "make it politically impossible for President Bush and Tony Blair to have this war." Gen. Richard Myers said Baghdad would bear the blame. "It is a violation of the laws of armed conflict to use noncombatants as a means of shielding potential military targets, even those people who may volunteer for this purpose," the Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman said. "Iraqi actions to do so would not only violate this law, but could be considered a war crime in any conflict" and the Iraqi government could be found guilty of "grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions," Myers said.
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