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Don Shepperd: War not inevitable, but U.S. ready
(CNN) -- Senior U.S. military planners will head to a command center in the Persian Gulf emirate of Qatar as soon as this week to begin planning for a possible conflict with Iraq, military officials said Tuesday. In advance of that movement, Gen. Tommy Franks, head of U.S. Central Command, will meet Wednesday with President Bush and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Speaking Wednesday from Tucson, Arizona, retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Don Shepperd, a CNN military analyst, talked to CNN Anchor Paula Zahn about the significance of the U.S. plans in Qatar and what might happen in a war with Iraq. ZAHN: Based on the fact that by mid-February, we could have some one quarter of 1 million troops ready to go, do you think war is inevitable? SHEPPERD: No, I don't think it's inevitable. I think the words of the president and the secretary of defense are right on. It depends on what [chief U.N. weapons inspector] Hans Blix does and what he finds in the inspections. It also depends upon Saddam Hussein and what he provides -- not in the way of being able to find things that he has, but prove that he has destroyed them or abandoned his efforts. I think there's still a chance -- and Secretary Rumsfeld said it [Tuesday] -- that basically exile is certainly an option. I think we're all hoping that takes place. But if it doesn't take place, we will have the troops there to do what the president orders, if he orders combat. ZAHN: What incentive do you think Saddam Hussein has now to consider an exile plan? There were a couple of reports in the news [Tuesday] suggesting a high-ranking Saudi official actually traveled to Iraq to sit down and talk with Saddam Hussein's people about that possibility. SHEPPERD: I think the incentive for him is survival. It should be very clear to him when we put that number of forces in the area that we have the capability to destroy him and his Baath regime. What lies ahead for him is certain defeat if there is combat in the Middle East. He is going to go down, as is his regime. He is going to end up, and his minions will end up, either dead or in the Hague -- [that] is probably the message that's being sent. And therefore, it looks to me like exile would be a very good option if he decided to take it. ZAHN: He has made some curious moves militarily himself, has he not? There has been some attention paid to the amount of his Republican Guard troops that have been moved toward the center of Baghdad. SHEPPERD: It's very likely that he has all sorts of plans for survival. Clearly, he would like to drag us into house-to-house fighting in downtown Baghdad. That's something that we would certainly like to avoid. There have been rumors of a scorched earth policy in which he would destroy his oil fields and other things. We don't know for sure if that's the case. On the other hand, we will be making plans if we go in there and if he does those types of things. But also, there will be a large psychological campaign that's already under way to convince anyone close to him that if they take part in these things, they clearly are going to go down with him and be held responsible. ZAHN: If it comes to urban warfare, how prepared do you think U.S. troops are? SHEPPERD: We are well-trained in urban warfare. But no matter how well-trained you are, urban warfare is the ugliest of ugly. Throw on top of urban warfare the possibility of uses of weapons of mass destruction, such as chemical or bio, and it gets even uglier. There is no way, if you're going house to house and clearing things out, that you can avoid your own casualties or unwanted civilian casualties. It would be very, very ugly and the thing we want to avoid and a last-ditch effort that he might want to cause. This is unpredictable and one other reason that we don't want combat, or at least we want it as a last resort there.
ZAHN: Some senior [U.S. military] planners are heading to Qatar. We just witnessed some exercises there, close to that area where the command center in Qatar is set up. How significant is this? SHEPPERD: It's very significant that we have the command center there. It originally was in Saudi Arabia during the last war. This is a new command post. CNN was there covering the Exercise Internal Look. That was the dry run, if you will, to test out the facilities. And by all reports, it was very successful. So an advance team is going there to reactivate or activate that headquarters. And Gen. Franks, if he desires or decides to, can take his whole Central Command staff there and run the war from Qatar at As Sayliyah base, which is south of Doha in Qatar. ZAHN: Gen. Franks is going to be meeting with the president and the secretary of defense [Wednesday]. What do you think is going to come out of those meetings? SHEPPERD: My guess is final plans for the deployment and preparation of forces and approval of the initial actions, if they take place. That's my best guess.
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