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Tom O'Neil: 'Chicago' looks golden
LOS ANGELES (CNN) -- The eyes of the movie world will be on -- where else? -- Hollywood Sunday night, for the 60th annual Golden Globe awards. Although not as prestigious as the Academy Awards, the Golden Globes are considered a harbinger: Seven of the last 10 films to win the Oscar for best picture won a Golden Globe for best drama. Tom O'Neil, an entertainment awards analyst and the man behind the awards Web site Goldderby.com, talked with CNN anchor Anderson Cooper about the odds-on favorites at the Golden Globes. COOPER: So now people are actually laying bets on who's going to win. I didn't know this happened. Like Vegas book makers with big necks are doing this, right? O'NEIL: Well, we actually issue odds, but we don't let anybody actually place bets. This is for amusement purposes only. I've been an awards expert for years. And in the past few years, I invited the writers from Entertainment Weekly, the Associated Press, USA Today to meet me at a mythical cyberspace race track, where we try to decide what's going to be -- win these top awards. Las Vegas professionals from America's Line then come in, read our opinions, and issue actual odds. COOPER: Well, let's take a look. Let's go through -- what are we going to start with? Best drama? Why don't we do that. O'NEIL: OK. COOPER: Now what are the nominees and what's going to win in your odds making...? O'NEIL: OK, this is the category to watch at the Globes because this will determine what will be the chief challenger against "Chicago," which seems to be the front runner now for the Oscars. And "The Hours" here, we give seven to five odds at Goldderby.com. But watch out for "The Pianist" from Roman Polanski. We give five to two odds to that. It's a very, very close race here. And don't write off "Gangs of New York," because often at the Globes, they tend to go for the epics. But this one hasn't quite been the movie everybody hoped it would be, even though it's still a great movie. And we give that three to one odds. It's a really close race. COOPER: All right, let's look at best comedy, best musical film. O'NEIL: This is a runaway for "Chicago," because it's interesting that here in Hollywood for the first time in 30 years, everybody thinks a musical's going to win best picture. And we will learn at the Globes whether or not that's true. "Chicago" has the second most nominations in the history of the Golden Globes. It has eight. It will likely win this category. We give it one to seven odds at Goldderby. COOPER: One to seven? So if one was wagering, you'd have to wager $7 to even get $1 back. O'NEIL: Right. COOPER: So that's a...
O'NEIL: That's -- it's close to as sure as you can get. It also looks like Richard Gere will probably win best actor for this. And Renee Zellweger and Catherine Zeta-Jones, the two women who clawed each other on screen, are clawing at each other as divas in this race. I think Renee Zellweger will pull this out. It's a close race. COOPER: All right. Let's go to best actor in a drama. O'NEIL: OK, actually, this is where I'm going to differ from the pundits at my Web site. The pundits in general think this is going to go to Daniel Day-Lewis from "Gangs of New York." He certainly has -- gives this flamboyant performance as Bill the Butcher. And also he won an Oscar a few years ago. And he's an actor's actor. But he plays a villain here. And that often is not good at show business awards. Also, Leonardo DiCaprio is arguably the lead in this movie. So I think this award is going to go Jack Nicholson for "About Schmidt." And anybody who bets against Jack at a show business award is a fool, because Jack Nicholson is the biggest male winner of every single show business award, without exception. COOPER: Didn't he once show his butt, too, at the Golden Globes? O'NEIL: Yes, a few years ago, he dropped his trousers. He kept his boxers up, but he dropped his britches. COOPER: Yes, well, he didn't keep his dignity, as I recall. What do we have left? Best director? Who do you think is the best -- do you think Martin Scorsese? I mean, the guy has never won an Oscar, which is pretty amazing.
O'NEIL: I know, and I think at the Globes, if nothing else, he will win best director. This is an award that often will break from best picture. And it's -- like last year, we saw Robert Altman win this for "Gosford Park," even though that didn't win best picture, but if this "Chicago" sweep is unstoppable across the board, Rob Marshall could pull off a victory here. COOPER: And what do we have left? O'NEIL: Best actress in a drama. And this is what's really interesting, because everyone's saying well maybe it's Nicole Kidman's year for "The Hours," or maybe it's Julianne Moore's year for "Far from Heaven." And we're going to find out the answer to that at the Globes. I think it's -- this could be Nicole's year for the Oscar. She gives this dynamic performance as Virginia Woolf in "The Hours." I think, and most of my pundit pals think, this goes to Julianne Moore in "Far from Heaven." She's not nominated in the supporting category for "The Hours," which will consolidate her strength in the lead category. And there was a feeling that she's a queen waiting for her crown. Nicole won a Globe last year.
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