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Japan retail sales fall again
TOKYO, Japan -- Japan's nationwide retail sales fell for the 22nd straight month in January, dropping 2.2 percent from a year earlier, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said Wednesday. Retail sales at large stores, which include department stores and supermarkets, fell 1.9 percent in January year on year on a same-store basis. Overall retail sales, which also include car dealerships and smaller stores, had fallen 3.4 percent year on year in December. The retail data follows the release of January trade figures on Monday, with unemployment, CPI and industrial output figures scheduled for release on Friday. Monday's trade data showed Japan's merchandise trade surplus narrowed for the first time in 11 months, as imports rose 10.7 percent and exports -- though 7.9 percent higher than a year ago -- were hit by a stronger yen. The January surplus was down 43 percent from a year earlier to 104.99 billion yen ($890 million) in January. Earlier this month Japan posted a surprise lift in economic growth for the December quarter, mainly from continuing demand in Asian markets, particularly China. Despite the better than expected figure of 0.5 percent growth for GDP (gross domestic product) over the previous quarter, some economists believe the Japanese economy may be on the brink of recession. IFR Asia Pacific chief economist George Worthington said in his weekly outlook that war uncertainty, a firm yen and broad-based deflation were all weighing on activity, "with as yet no end in sight". Revising forecastBut ING's chief economist in Tokyo, Richard Jerram, said in a commentary last week that he was revising his GDP forecast upwards to 1.7 percent in the 2002 fiscal year ending in March 2003, and 1.6 percent in the 2003 fiscal year. "Overall, we feel that views on the economy have probably become excessively negative in recent months on the basis of the performance of two economic indicators: exports and industrial production," Jerram said. "Other reliable data such as low inventories, stable small firm confidence or rising labor demand, does not support the view that the cycle is turning down," he said. Reuters contributed to this report.
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