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The Morning Grind / DayAhead |
2/3, or not 2/3*
By John Mercurio
CNN Political Unit
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Eye on February: John Edwards and Wesley Clark are trying to make waves in "February 3" states today.
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SPECIAL REPORT
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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- December has just begun, but it's beginning to look a lot like ... February 3. From Wesley Clark's new 60-second TV ad in Arizona to John Edwards' visit to New Mexico, a chunk of today's action is in states hosting primaries on February's first Tuesday.
Also today, President Bush plans to announce his decision to lift steel tariffs -- a move, expected around noon, that's likely to drive much of today's political debate. (Unless, of course, Howard Dean steals the spotlight by releasing his state records).
Another story with potential to grow today: AP/Roll Call reports that AFSCME and SEIU heads are demanding that Dick Gephardt fire longtime aide Joyce Aboussie after she threatened to retaliate against union members if they campaign for Howard Dean. Aboussie, who's widely credited with leading Gephardt to victory in the 1988 Iowa caucus, issued an apology late yesterday saying she didn't intend to issue threats of any kind.
Gephardt, who has not denied that Aboussie issued the threat during a December 1 meeting in Missouri, will hold a "media availability" event at 6:30 p.m. EST today at a Sacramento union hall.
This is hardly the first time we've seen '04 Dems pouring time, money and energy into the seven February 3 states, which stretch across three time zones, plenty of ethnicities and all sorts of political ideologies. The states (Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina) are the backdrop for the Strategy of the Second Phase, during which Dems with little hope of winning Iowa and/or New Hampshire (Edwards, Clark and Joe Lieberman) hope to derail January's front-runner.
Clark
Clark, whose once-wobbly campaign has steadied in recent weeks, has committed roughly $600,000 to run a glowing 60-second bio TV ad in three of these states (South Carolina and Oklahoma on Tuesday, today in Arizona). The hefty buy makes Clark the first Democrat to air ads simultaneously in more than one February 3 state since Howard Dean in early September.
In the ad, an announcer notes that Clark rose "from a middle-class background" and "graduated first in his class at West Point" before becoming a four-star general. "He was never a yes-man and stood up for what he believed was right. He fought for better schools and for better health care for those he led because it was the right thing to do. A quiet, real American courage, he will make an extraordinary American president."
Edwards
Edwards will meet with New Mexico voters at La Familia Health Center, a community health center that provides medical, dental and health education services. This will be Edwards's fifth trip this year to New Mexico, as state aides say he has visited more than any other '04 Dem.
Edwards filed his candidacy papers in Oklahoma yesterday; he'll return there Monday. Gephardt's son Matt will be in Oklahoma City tomorrow and Saturday to attend holiday parties with local Democratic activists and labor folks.
While the February 3 primaries will decide 10 percent of the primary delegates (far more than either New Hampshire or Iowa), much less is known about the dynamics of the races in each state. In other words, at this point, it's anyone's guess who's best poised to be the '04 Dem front-runner on February 4.
Dean
As the AP's Ron Fournier reported yesterday, Dean has run ads in four of the states, more than any other candidate, and has more paid staff than his opponents in Arizona (11 aides), New Mexico (nine, three times more than Kerry, his nearest rival here) and Oklahoma (seven). Dean and Gephardt each have three paid staffers in North Dakota.
Nobody appears willing to say the governor has a lock on that night, especially if he fails to meet expectations in Iowa and New Hampshire that seem to get more astronomical every week. (Clark currently has the largest staff in South Carolina. He has 11 aides, followed by Edwards and Gephardt, who each have nine).
* Our apologies to our friends at the Hotline, who first came up with this headline. We don't usually steal headlines, but this one was particularly clever.
