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The Morning Grind / DayAhead |
Working for labor
By John Mercurio
CNN Political Unit
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Dean could grab a big Union endorsement today, saving his campaign after recent controversial comments.
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SPECIAL REPORT
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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- In yet another sign that he's the uncanny beneficiary of good timing, Howard Dean is well poised to change the '04 Dem debate again today, this time to a topic far more flattering to him than whether he's a racist or is flip-flopping on campaign spending caps. The topic du jour: the Service Employee International Union's very, very likely (but still NOT official) decision to back Dean.
Union officials bent over backward to emphasize that the endorsement is NOT a done deal until President Andy Stern meets with the board today at the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel. Nonetheless, Stern has already said the board won't be considering any other '04 Dems, so Dean should benefit regardless of its decision, if only because he won't spend another day wrapped in the Confederate flag. On the other hand, given the week he's had already, a "no endorsement" vote could prompt a few weekend articles heralding Dean's demise.
In interviews yesterday, union officials said they didn't think Dean's flag flap would have a decisive impact on the board's decision. Worth noting here: The SEIU is 58 percent white, 15 percent black and 13 percent Latino, officials said.
The endorsement of the 1.6-million-member union, the AFL-CIO's largest and most organized member, would mark a major milestone in Dean's rise from an insurgent longshot on a shoestring budget to an overwhelming, if somewhat conventional, front-runner with establishment ties that bring vast resources, both financial and organizational.
And the move would, of course, come as a serious, but now widely anticipated, blow to Dick Gephardt, whose aides have responded by noting that their guy has so far won the support of 20 unions, far more than any other candidate. The Gephardt-backing unions have roughly 5 million members, including 54,000 workers in Iowa.
Speaking of Iowa and unions, Gephardt and Dean are working hard to secure support from the AFL's second-largest labor group, AFSCME, which is now expected to make its decision during a conference in Washington on December 4 and 5. But sources say the race for that union's nod has a third finalist: Wesley Clark.
Yesterday, Lee Saunders, special assistant to AFSCME President Gerald McEntee, and Larry Scanlon, the union's political director, traveled to Little Rock to meet with top Clark campaign aides.
Jan Corderman, head of the Iowa AFSCME local, who met separately with Gephardt and Dean earlier this week, said she believes that electability will be the determining factor in the union's decision. "It's a key issue. We can't foresee four more years under [President] Bush. Can they raise money? Do they have a plan that takes them until November '04? Those things are critical in our decision, extremely critical. We don't feel we can afford to miss this one."
Corderman said Gephardt was "very articulate" and delivered "flawless" responses during their meeting Tuesday. "He's really been letting his passion show over the last few months, and yesterday was no exception," she said.
She said Dean, who like Gephardt met with union officials for a little over an hour at their Des Moines headquarters, was also impressive, although other union sources said there's a comfort level they have established with Gephardt over the years that members haven't reached with Dean yet.
One AFSCME official said the SEIU's endorsement of Dean could hurt him with McEntee and other AFSCME leaders, who do little to hide their antipathy toward Stern. Some labor activists speculate that McEntee would be less likely to endorse Dean if Stern does so first.
Another big union that remains uncommitted, the 1.2-million-member American Federation of Teachers, met in early October but was unable to reach a consensus. That union plans to wait until after the primaries to take sides.
