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 When we get behind closed doors ....
By John Mercurio
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Thousands of closed-door meetings will take place in Washington today, but Dick Gephardt cares mostly about two of them. One power powwow this morning on Capitol Hill will help decide how much money Gephardt raises by a key September 30 deadline. The other, a few hours later in Dupont Circle, will determine whether the '04 Dem continues to amass union backing or loses a key labor battle to Howard Dean. Unfortunately for us reporters, neither of these meetings is expected to yield major news -- at least not today. Which may not be bad news for Gephardt. Let us explain. Meeting No. 1At 8 a.m. EDT, Gephardt plans to huddle with most of the 31 House Democrats backing his '04 bid to ask for more fund-raising help. (One notable no-show: Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, a strong supporter, who apparently has a scheduling conflict.) The meeting is going down at the Dutko Group's headquarters on Capitol Hill. Gephardt's campaign chief of staff, Steve Elmendorf, downplayed the immediate impact of the meeting. He said Gephardt meets with House colleagues periodically to talk about the '04 race and get updates on the battle for the House. It's hard to deny, though, that this mid-September meeting has special significance for Gephardt, given how crucial his third-quarter fund-raising report will be. "The top two things we ask members to do is talk to other members and raise money," Elmendorf told the Grind. Minority Whip Steny Hoyer has agreed to host an event for Gephardt in Detroit on Friday. Reps. Rob Andrews of New Jersey and Sherrod Brown of Ohio are holding money events for their former leader in their respective states, both before the September 30 fund-raising deadline. "For members, it's about whether they think he's going to win, and for Gephardt, I think that's becoming more likely now," said Brown, who's co-hosting an event September 22 in Akron. "The winner of this race will be the guy who can most strongly criticize Bush, but also the one who has his own platform and ideas, and Gephardt's clearly that." Pelosi has already agreed to host a Gephardt event in San Francisco on October 3. (No word on why she's waiting until October, meaning those funds won't appear on Gephardt's Q3 fund-raising report. Must be more scheduling conflicts.) Gephardt is also hosting a major event in Washington shortly before September 30, which several House Democrats are expected to attend. Sources said another House Democrat, Rep. Ted Strickland of Ohio, is poised to endorse Gephardt soon. Meeting No. 2The second meeting that Gephardt's watching is scheduled to occur early this afternoon at the Washington Hilton and Towers in upper Dupont Circle, where the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) is wrapping up its four-day political conference. The influential union's 60-plus-member executive board will then convene to decide whether to get behind an '04 Dem and, if so, whom. (The Grind's word on the Dems' day with the SEIU) "Whom" is looking increasingly like either Gephardt or Dean. But "whom" is not likely to be decided this week, according to '04 Dem sources bold enough to predict the thinking of SEIU board members and their president, Andy Stern, considered one of the union movement's least autocratic leaders.
The union's expected decision to delay their endorsement for a month is good news for Gephardt, given the strong showing Dean made before the SEIU on Monday. If Dean grabs the SEIU's nod, it would hurt Gephardt more than any other '04 Dem. In other words, it's much better for Gephardt to hear nothing this week than to learn that one of the biggest and most influential unions is siding with Dean. But Elmendorf said the former Vermont governor faces a key problem with the SEIU and, ultimately, the Democratic primary base. His campaign, Elmendorf said, is too white. "The biggest problem Dean has with that union is that they are very sensitive to a candidate's Latino and African-American support. I think they're concerned about his overwhelmingly white support," Elmendorf said. "His meet-up in Santa Fe was all white people. A lot of his organizational activists are heavily centered toward the Internet, which skews toward more affluent voters, and more affluent voters skews toward white voters. Which is not the base of the Democratic Party. That limits Dean's appeal as you get further into the primary calendar." But Dean touched on this issue himself during the debate, using a tried-and-true retort. Asked how a Vermonter could appeal to black voters, Dean said that if the key to attracting support of black voters is linked to their share of the population in a politician's home state, "Trent Lott would be Martin Luther King." Field on the field, post-UeberrothToday in California Recall World, the Field Institute plans to release a post-Ueberroth poll. (Ueberroth withdraws) This will be an additional analysis of the same results they collected in their September 3 to 7 interviews in order to reflect what Republican Peter Ueberroth's withdrawal will do to the field. The poll will be available on the Field Institute's Web site at 9 a.m. EDT.
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