Democratic hopefuls head to Iowa
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Washington (CNN) -- Labor day is usually the traditional kick off of the fall presidential campaign. But with an incumbent president already shattering fund-raising records and a crowded Democratic field that could get even more cramped, the 2004 race is already in full throttle mode.
Several '04 Democratic hopefuls head to Iowa for the holiday weekend, home of the first presidential contest, to participate in the annual political rites -- parades, picnics, and pancake breakfasts.
A new Iowa poll released Friday shows a two-man race shaping up that may quickly determine the shape of the rest of the nomination contest.
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-Missouri) are essentially tied for the lead (Dean with 25 percent and Gephardt 21 percent). Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry received 16 percent and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman garnered 12 percent. The five remaining candidates posted single digits.
David Yepsen, veteran Des Moines Register reporter and political watcher, appearing on Friday's CNN's "Inside Politics," told me that he sees Dean building a slight lead over Gephardt.
Yepsen believes a Dean win in Iowa could prove costly to another rival, Kerry, down the road. "The candidate who wins Iowa automatically gets a 8 to 10-point bump in the state of New Hampshire, where Dean is already leading Kerry by, in some polls, double-digit margins," he said. "So I don't know that Kerry could withstand Dean winning here because it would just have a real multiplier effect in New Hampshire."
Yepsen also said that Sens. Bob Graham, D-Florida, and John Edwards, D-North Carolina, might be due for a "gut check" after spending considerable time and resources in the state, but failing to register any movement the polls.
In a signal that the field isn't going to winnow anytime soon, former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, who ranks consistently in the bottom tier in the polls, told me on Friday that she's in the race to stay. Her campaign scheduled an official campaign kick off for September 22.
"People tried to dismiss my candidacy when I ran for the United States Senate against an incumbent in 1992, and I had little money... And so I believe that so long as we have enough to keep going, to keep our operation going, to get to the point that people -- the people can speak, not just the money. The money primary is one thing, but the people's votes in the end will determine who wins," Moseley Braun argued.
And what about a possible tenth member for the '04 Democratic field? Yepsen says it's still possible for former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark, who is weighing a run, to throw his hat in the ring. "Fifteen percent say they're undecided, so there's room for General Clark to get an audience, but it's getting pretty late."
In a sign that some Democrats can't let go of the regular fall campaign marker, Kerry and Edwards scheduled official campaign "announcements" for September 2 and September 16 respectively. Some political traditions never die.
Judy Woodruff is CNN's prime anchor and senior correspondent. She also anchors "Judy Woodruff's Inside Politics," weekdays at 3:30 pm ET.
