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Cadres sort millstones from milestones

Zhu Rongji
'Steely-faced Zhu' the no-nonsense premier  


By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
CNN Senior China Analyst

(CNN) -- Happy cadres are contented for much the same reasons. Unhappy ones are dissatisfied and grumpy, each in a different way.

Given China's opaque system, however, officials express their angst in subtle if not obscure manners. And it takes much tea-leaf reading to divine who is mad about what and with whom.

Consider first the case of the no-nonsense premier, Zhu Rongji, also widely known as "steely-faced Zhu."

For two months, the 72-year-old has gone through a particularly melancholy streak.

Last month, he paid an emotionally charged visit to his alma mater Tsinghua University, where he had served as Head of the School of Management for 10 years or so.

In a tearful farewell, Zhu said: "I won't be back to Tsinghua ever again!"

On the night that Beijing won the Olympics bid, Zhu went through the celebrations wearing a puzzlingly somber expression.

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What was on Zhu's mind could be that two of his senior colleagues at the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) -- President Jiang Zemin and National People's Congress (NPC) chief Li Peng -- had given strong indications they would like to stay on beyond the 16th Communist Party congress next year.

Under scenarios floated by their aides, Jiang, 74, would remain chairman of the Central Military Commission and Li, 72, would succeed Jiang as state president.

This is despite an unwritten rule established at the 15th congress in 1997 that to hasten reform of the cadre system, everybody should step down at 70.

The only concession the two are willing to make to the principle of rejuvenation is that they are prepared to vacate the PSC.

A party source said Zhu was even more unhappy on being told that, as "compensation" for acquiescing to the schemes of Jiang and Li, he, too, would be allowed to remain in the limelight for five more years as chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).

"Zhu has said many times that he just wants to retire, period," the source said. "The premier has pointed out retirement rules should not be bent for individuals, however prominent they may be."

He added that the premier was under tremendous pressure to stay on.

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    "Zhu's followers are all saying his retaining a substantial position will keep the flame of reform going," the party source said. "And Zhu knows fully well that a part of himself is also reluctant to leave when the revolution is but half-finished."

    And if Zhu were indeed forced by circumstances to serve for five more years, his earlier plan to take up a full-time post at Tsinghua would be shattered.

    And how about President Jiang, who seemed on cloud nine thanks to the Olympic nod and his successful trip to Moscow?

    Sources close to the Jiang camp said the president was fuming about both Li and Zhu.

    Until late last year, it was assumed in party circles that only Jiang, the "core" of the third generation leadership, would be staying on beyond the 16th congress.

    "It is easy for Jiang to bend the retirement regulation because of his elevated status and the fact that [late patriarch] Deng Xiaoping had also remained in the CMC after relinquishing his party and government posts in the 1980s," said a Western diplomat.

    "Moreover, Jiang had already done it once. He was past 70 when his term as party boss was renewed at the 15th party congress."

    However, two's a crowd: the situation has become much more complicated with Li trying to follow suit. This has prompted the enemies of both Jiang and Li to join forces in arguing that no exceptions should be made to the retirement rule.

    Moreover, Zhu's high-profile defense of rejuvenation has encouraged groups ranging from anti-Jiang party elders to liberal intellectuals to get into the fray.

    Troubleshooter

    Yet another millstone round Jiang's neck is the difficulty he has encountered in promoting members of his Shanghai Faction.

    Take Zeng Qinghong, an alternate member of the Politburo and head of the party's Organization Department. Zeng is not only Jiang's troubleshooter but the custodian of his legacy.

    Late last year, Jiang tried unsuccessfully to have Zeng made a full Politburo member at a plenary session of the Central Committee.

    Opponents to Zeng's elevation included Zhu and Vice-President Hu Jintao, who was jealous about the powers the president had vested on his protιgι.

    Since none of this factional bickering could go public, Jiang could only vent his pent-up feelings in poetry.

    While watching the sunrise on Mount Huangshan in early summer, Jiang wrote this line: "The sun breaks through waves of clouds and paints ten thousand miles [of sky] red."

    In Chinese, "waves" is pronounced tao and "red," hong. As Beijing's pundits put it, what Jiang wanted to say was that Hong, or Zeng Qinghong, could only shine through if the barriers put up by Tao, or Hu Jintao, were broken.

    And how about Li Peng? On the surface, the NPC chairman and former premier is basking in media attention with frequent visits to the provinces and overseas.

    Worst nightmare

    Moreover, his bid for state presidency has enjoyed the support of conservative party elders as well as numerous former associates in the State Council.

    Yet sources in Beijing said the fate of former Yugoslav strongman Slobodan Milosevic at the Hague's international court had cast a pall on Li.

    The parliament chief's worst nightmare is he may be penalized if not also put on trial for his alleged role in the Tiananmen Square crackdown.

    After all, the party elders who made major decisions concerning the massacre -- Deng Xiaoping, former president Yang Shangkun and General Wang Zhen -- have all passed away.

    And fear of recrimination has prompted Li to pull out the stops to snatch a major post such as state president, which may afford him protection for at least five more years.

    And then there is heir presumptive Vice President Hu, who is worried that the throne he will inherit at the 16th congress may be a hollow one.

    While the 58-year-old former party secretary of Tibet is generally well-liked, he lacks a power base in the party or army.

    Cadres familiar with Hu said he resented having to sing the praises of Jiang all the time.

    Mao, Deng and Jiang

    For example, while visiting Lhasa, his supposed fiefdom, last week to observe the 50th anniversary of the "liberation" of Tibet, Hu brought along as gifts to locals big posters bearing the visages of Chairman Mao, Deng and Jiang.

    It is understood Hu has privately blamed Jiang for not allowing him to play a big role in foreign policy or defense.

    While Hu has been vice president and CMC vice-chairman for a few years, he has seldom visited major Western countries -- and his contact with the generals is limited.

    Hu's aides have claimed that this is Jiang's way of ensuring his own indispensability in diplomatic and defense matters even after the 16th congress.

    Given the Communist Party tradition of avoiding direct confrontation, the near-taboo subject of retirement will hardly be touched at the informal Beidaihe leadership conference set to start this weekend.

    The anger and angst will simmer -- adding elements of suspense and intrigue to what could be the most cantankerous succession in recent memory.







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