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Top Bush adviser predicts recession

By Kelly Wallace
CNN Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Lawrence Lindsey, President Bush's top economic adviser, predicted Wednesday the September 11 terrorist attacks would push the U.S. economy into a recession.

Lindsey said in a speech to a Schwab Capital Markets symposium in Washington that although predictions are hard to make, he expected "small negative growth" for the third quarter and "small negative growth" for the fourth quarter of this year, according to an administration official.

The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Lindsey is the highest-ranking administration official to make such a prediction, but he was not the first senior Bush adviser to do so.

Glenn Hubbard, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said October 2 during testimony before the Senate Budget committee, "I think the probability of two quarters of negative growth is high. And I think the third quarter is likely to be particularly adversely affected and likely the fourth."

Hubbard and Lindsey both said there is no reason the negative growth should continue next year.

Lindsey predicted normal growth by the second quarter of 2002.



 
 
 
 



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