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Rothenberg One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.

Stuart Rothenberg: Bush's tax cut goes from ideological to economic

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Six months ago, George W. Bush was defending his proposed tax cut -- currently in the order of about $1.6 trillion -- primarily in ideological terms. Now, the president is calling for it as an economic necessity to ward off a recession.

The change in the rationale behind the tax cut has fundamentally altered the proposal's appeal, dramatically undercutting the issue's potential use by the Democrats and reinforcing Bush's appeal on the Republican right. And it's one of the reasons why the Bush administration has gotten off to such a successful start.

Bush and conservatives have been calling for an across-the-board tax cut primarily because they believe the federal government has more money than it needs, and they fear that Washington won't be able to resist spending the surplus on new programs and federal entitlements.

That opposition was -- and is -- fundamentally ideological, since it stems from an overarching view of the role of government that fits into a larger belief system. In pushing for a large tax cut during his campaign for the GOP presidential nomination, Bush was playing to Republican conservatives, who see any tax cut as a way to limit the federal government's power.

Most voters, on the other hand, aren't particularly ideological. They are more interested in the bottom line. Traditionally, voters have embraced tax cuts as a way of re-igniting a slowing or depressed economy, or as a way of putting more money in people's pockets. At least until recently, few Americans were clamoring for a tax cut, since the economy was strong. Indeed, opponents were able to argue that a tax cut could over-stimulate the economy, thereby creating rather than solving problems.

Moreover, since there was no economic rationale for Bush's tax cut proposal, congressional Democrats were able to paint it as a luxury that would benefit the rich. That didn't force Bush to pull his proposal, but it clearly put him on the defensive during the fall campaign, even though he also insisted that his tax cut would leave enough of the surplus for debt reduction and new spending on education and health care.

The slowing economy has given the new president exactly the cover he needs for the tax cut. Now he can argue it is a necessity, a way both of boosting consumer spending and of encouraging business to keep employing people and producing goods.

The change in the rationale may constitute the triumph of politics, but it also shows that President Bush is adept at using changed circumstances to his advantage. Instead of wanting to merely "win" an ideological argument, Bush is more interested in getting his tax cut enacted.

The changed economic environment has produced such a profound change in the political environment that even Democratic congressional leaders are sounding more sympathetic to a considerable tax cut. True, they haven't accepted the president's dollar amount, but instead of insisting on very targeted tax cuts or total tax cuts of $200 billion or $300 billion, some Democrats are talking about cuts of as much as $700 million to $900 million.

And while Democrats still portray the tax cut as a gift for the super-rich, they are in a more difficult position now than they once expected.

Ultimately, the president can't expect to get everything that he has asked for. He is in Washington, after all, and almost every issue on Capitol Hill involves negotiation and horse trading. The challenge for Bush is to find a tax cut number that satisfies his base but doesn't arouse unanimous Democratic opposition. Given Bush's history as governor of Texas, he will most likely sketch out what he wants and ultimately embrace whatever he gets. And then he'll claim victory.



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