Nice: Battle for Europe's future

By Robin Oakley, CNN.com European Political Editor

LONDON, England (CNN) -- The Nice summit starting on Thursday, December 7, was intended to be a brisk two-day affair to wrap up a new treaty reforming EU institutions. Now the French hosts are warning that it could extend well into, or even beyond, the weekend.

Leaders of the 15 EU countries need to agree on reforms to equip the European Union for the addition of 12-15 more nations, including many former Iron Curtain countries from Eastern Europe, during the next few years. At the Amsterdam summit in 1997, the leaders failed to agree on the key points. Under the leadership of the French, who are currently in their six months of rotating EU presidency, they are trying again.

REFERENCE   •  Summit preview   •  Main sticking point   •  Chirac's salvation?   •  On the agenda   •  What do they want?   •  Votes vs. population   •  Jargon glossary   •  EU enlargement map   •  History of EU growth   •  What kind of Europe?   •  France's EU presidency   •  In-depth: Changing face of Europe   •  Message board

The bureaucratic jargon is impenetrable. The detail is mind numbing. But key issues are at stake. The summit could decide the pace and extent of future European integration and enlargement. It could decide the balance of power between large and small European nations. And it could decide if there is to be, in effect, a two-tier Europe.

The leaders at Nice have to decide how far to cut back on national "vetoes" in favour of "qualified majority voting," and what comparative "weight" to give the votes of countries that vary enormously in population and economic strength.

They have to decide how to trim the size of the European Commission to ease decision-making, and they have to determine whether to permit "enhanced co-operation" -- allowing self-selected groups of countries to forge ahead with greater integration without the rest joining in.

Add to that further talk about whether the new Charter of Fundamental Rights should be legally enforceable and the precise relationship between the new EU defence force and NATO, and you have a recipe for grandstanding, walkouts and battle by news conference.

Romano Prodi gives the summit no more than a 50 percent chance of success

At such crunch meetings, national pride is at stake all around. Solutions can only be reached by compromise, but leaders of all 15 countries involved have to take care to convince suspicious voters at home that they have not sold out on any vital national interest.

All have been saying they want the enlargement of the EU. But without agreed reforms, they know an enlarged EU risks decision-making paralysis.

At the earlier summit under the French presidency in Biarritz, the Charter of Fundamental Rights was agreed, although not its precise legal status. There was some progress towards agreement on enhanced co-operation but little progress on the extension of qualified voting majority, the weighting of votes or the number of commissioners. Small countries voiced their fears about big countries ganging up and forcing agendas on them after re-weighting. The small countries insisted they must keep one commissioner each.

Since Biarritz, there has been criticism of French immobility. The jockeying for position between the Conservative French president, Jacques Chirac, and his Socialist prime minister, Lionel Jospin -- a likely rival for the French presidency in 2002 -- is hindering flexibility.

Paavo Lipponen, Finland's prime minister, is understood to have complained about French bullying of smaller countries.

Joschka Fischer has called for an elected European Commission president and two-chambered parliament

Another problem on the eve of the summit has been a falling out between France and Germany, together often the driving force in the EU. The French resent the Germans demanding more votes than France in the European Council, and Hubert Vedrine, the French foreign minister, has criticised his German counterpart, Joschka Fischer, as a "pied piper" whose federalist tunes are leading Europe to cruel disappointment.

European Commission President Romano Prodi, who has been imploring national leaders to make concessions on qualified majority voting, says their refusal to do so has produced stalemate and has given the summit no more than a 50 percent chance of success. But efforts to play down summit prospects, in order to hail an eventual agreement, are not unknown.

Frantic arguments and bitter late-night exchanges are expected before anything is settled at Nice. But the key question is one posed by EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Chris Patten of Britain, who says: "We have to come away (from Nice) able to look the enlargement candidates in the eye."

If those nations are ignored while summit leaders play to their own national galleries, then Nice really will be dismissed afterwards as a grievously missed opportunity.

Defence row looms at EU summit
December 5, 2000

European Council Nice Summit

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