La Niña leaves states high and dry

The National Weather Service predicts many states will experience drier than normal conditions this year.

April 24, 2000
Web posted at: 11:39 a.m. EDT (1539 GMT)

By Environmental News Network staff

The rest of spring and summer will be warmer than normal in most of the United States, and many Midwest and Great Plains areas will continue to suffer dry days, according to the latest seasonal forecast from the National Weather Service.

The Weather Service also predicts that La Niña, which has dominated global weather patterns for the past two years, will linger until August, when Pacific Ocean temperatures will slowly return to normal.

"All of the computer weather models agree that most of the United States will be warmer than usual, but at least we can see the end coming for La Niña," said Ants Leetmaa, director of NOAA's climate prediction center, which is part of the Weather Service.

The persistent La Niña effect is the meteorological explanation for the warmer, drier conditions, he said.

"The La Niña pattern, which has dominated the United States for the past two years, has created a serious moisture deficit in many areas. This could seriously impact farmers, water resource managers, navigation interests and the tourism industry. Forewarned is forearmed," said James Baker, NOAA Administrator.

Unlike El Niño, which produces unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. La Niņa is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Pacific.

Last month, NOAA released its national drought forecast, predicting severe drought conditions in southern Arizona, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, southern Florida and Georgia, and northern Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. These states continue to be in the severe drought category despite recent heavy rains.

The drought is predicted to last through the spring.

"Drought conditions could actually worsen in the Midwest and Great Plains," said Leetmaa.

"Since February, portions of the affected southern states experienced some relief. However for southern parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia and South Carolina, drought conditions are expected to persist," he added.

The vegetation index shows a dramatic change from the same period last year.

Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama experienced their driest February in 106 years. So far this year, wildfires have claimed 208,000 acres ñ nearly four times the losses registered last year at this time.

The damage caused by the drought of 2000 parallels the drought of 1988, the most costly weather disaster in history with an estimated $40 billion in losses, according to NOAA. The average annual cost of drought damage is around $6 billion.

Last year's Weather Service forecast anticipated drier conditions in the southern United States, according to Jack Kelly, director of the NWS. "This year, for the first time, we are issuing a drought forecast. We are able to do this because of the advances made by the climate research community."

NOAA scientists note that drier than normal conditions mean less chance of significant river flooding this spring. However, Kelly cautions communities to be on guard against severe weather and flash flooding.

"Based on data from the U.S. Geological Survey's nationwide stream gage network, there are some areas of the country — particularly east of the Mississippi River — where stream flows are well below normal for this time of year," he said.

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