Tracking poll: Bush maintains slight edge

From CNN Polling Director Keating Holland

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush maintains a narrow lead over Vice President Al Gore in the presidential race, according to Thursday's CNN/USA Today/Gallup daily tracking poll.

Bush, the Republican nominee, has the support of 47 percent of those surveyed and Gore draws 43 percent. Interviews of 2,123 likely voters were conducted October 30 through November 1. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

Bush's support has remained at 47 percent to 48 percent for four straight days, while Gore's support has hovered at 43 percent to 44 percent for the same time period. These results are mirrored in a six-day average of the polls, which places Bush at 47 percent and Gore at 44 percent.

	RESOURCES
View all the results from the CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll

A crucial question is how the 5 percent who currently say they are undecided will break in the final days. Historical evidence indicates that Gore may pick up no more than one to two points from the undecideds -- and may not pick up any support from them at all. Bush could win as much as three to four points from the undecideds, based on historical trends. The wild card is that there are two independent candidates, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader and Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan, from whom these voters could also choose.

But if the undecided voters turn their backs on the third-party candidates, there is a possibility that Bush could win with a victory margin much greater than the current poll suggests. As always, today's poll results are a snapshot of voters' current preferences, not a prediction of how they will cast their ballots November 7.

In other surveys, Bush has 49 percent and Gore has 45 percent in the latest ABC News poll. Bush has 48 percent to Gore's 45 percent in the Washington Post daily tracking poll. The latest Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby tracking poll puts the contest at 45 percent for Bush and 42 percent for Gore. A CBS News poll indicates Bush with 44 percent and Gore with 43 percent of likely voters' support.

CNN will be releasing the results of its tracking polls every day until the election on November 7. The polls monitor public opinion of the presidential race over intervals of two to three days.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

Three-day average

Oct. 30 - Nov. 1
Likely Voters' Choice for President

Bush      47%

Gore      43

Nader      4

Buchanan   1

Sampling error: +/-2% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

Six-day average

Oct. 27 - Nov. 1
Likely Voters' Choice for President

Bush      47%

Gore      44

Nader      3

Buchanan   1

Sampling error: +/-2% pts

POLL OF POLLS

                          Bush   Gore


CNN/USA Today/Gallup      47%    43%

ABC/Washington Post       49     45

MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby       45     42

CBS News                  44     43