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Greenfield Jeff Greenfield is senior analyst for CNN. He will provide weekly, Web-exclusive analysis during Election 2000.

Jeff Greenfield: The 'uneasiness factor'

April 4, 2000
Web posted at: 4:45 p.m. EDT (2045 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- If you watched Tuesday's Wall Street roller-coaster -- and how is your blood pressure, by the way -- you're uncomfortably aware of the latest installment of an investment mood that resembles a slapstick movie farce: you know, the one where all the passengers on a ship race to one side, almost tipping the vessel over, then race all the way to the other side.

I find this rush from high-tech to low-tech to no-tech to let's-stuff-the-money-in-Grandma's-mattress fascinating -- not because I have anything financial at stake (as the old Broadway saying has it, I have plenty to live on for the rest of my life, provided I get hit by a bus this afternoon), but because of the potential political implications.

If you want a label, let's call it "the uneasiness factor." It's a factor that often plays a major role in our presidential campaigns.

In every presidential campaign, each candidate has to conquer the uneasiness factor; a sense of uncertainty voters feel about whether that candidate is truly up to the job. It comes into play most obviously when a party's's nominee causes significant uneasiness even in his own party: Goldwater in 1964; McGovern in 1972.

But it happens a lot more often. For example, Michael Dukakis in 1988 never convinced swing voters that he fully shared their values, or was tough enough to face down international adversaries. It can even happen to incumbents. By 1980, lots of Americans remained unconvinced about President Carter's capacity to deal with the Soviets, the Iranians, or the oil cartel known as OPEC.

In 1992, lots of voters thought President Bush didn't really understand their economic plight. (By contrast, Bill Clinton that year persuaded a plurality of American voters to take a chance. Whatever their doubts about his personal maturity, they were comfortable with his intelligence and energy.

Now how might "the uneasiness factor" play out this year? Most obviously, a sharp, continuing decline in the Dow and the NASDAQ, hammering the paper wealth (or paper affluence) of millions of Americans, could create doubts about just how real the economic achievements of the Clinton-Gore Administration were.

Or there could be a contrary reaction: economic doubts might persuade voters to stay with a familiar hand, rather than taking a risk with a new, relatively untested national leader.

What's most intriguing is the possibility that the uneasiness factor might play a significant role this year. So far, Americans have expressed a level of confidence and contentment rare in recent decades. If the stock market roller-coaster continues, it may make that factor the single most significant element in November.

 
ELECTION 2000


CALENDAR
See how quickly the primary and caucus season will take off with this calendar.


VIDEO
Watch selected policy speeches and campaign commercials from the major presidential candidates.


WHAT'S AT STAKE


HISTORY
If you have a Flash-capable browser, take a look at the history of key events during the primary season.


CANDIDATE BIOS
Quick takes on the White House hopefuls.


RACES
If you need to know who's up in 1999 or 2000 and what seats are open launch this quick guide.


THE STATES
Who are your elected officials? What is the past presidential vote and number of electoral votes in your state? Find out with these state political and election facts.


POLLS
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WHO'S IN-WHO'S OUT
Who is running, who isn't running and who has already dropped out? Check out our tally sheet.


FOLLOW THE MONEY
How much money have the candidates raised? Here are their quarterly reports to the Federal Election Commission.


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Tuesday, April 4, 2000


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