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Greenfield Jeff Greenfield is senior analyst for CNN. He will provide weekly, Web-exclusive analysis during Election 2000.

Jeff Greenfield: Random thoughts of a Bush campaigner

By Jeff Greenfield/CNN

January 25, 2000
Web posted at: 1:25 a.m. EST (0625 GMT)

DES MOINES, Iowa (CNN) -- Random thoughts of a Bush campaigner:

Okay. We can fairly claim a good night out of Iowa. The numbers back us up when we call it a "record-shattering" victory, since nobody's ever gotten more than 40 percent of the vote in a contested Republican caucus.

We know we're behind in New Hampshire, but we're leading big-time everywhere else, we've got a boatload of money, and our closest opponent is completely unacceptable to the leaders of the party.

So what's giving me even a small case of the jitters?

For one thing, I'm not entirely happy with the numbers. If you believe the final Des Moines Register poll, we didn't get any of the undecided vote -- not even 1 percent. That suggests something less than a tidal wave.

For another, the combined votes of Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes, and Gary Bauer exceeded our total by about 7 percent. Granted, the social conservatives don't make up as much of the New Hampshire Republican electorate as they do in Iowa, but still -- I don't like the idea of an energized Steve Forbes preparing to open his pocketbook, flooding the state with ads and mailings arguing that Bush isn't a real conservative.

Why does it worry me? It's so basic I'm almost embarrassed to think it. In New Hampshire, we need to get more votes than John McCain. And if conservatives move toward Forbes or Keyes -- I'm guessing Gary Bauer is just about done -- those votes will be peeled away from us, not from McCain. His stands on campaign finance, tobacco, and taxes put him beyond the pale as far as they're concerned.

So if I'm one of John McCain's handlers, I want Steve Forbes' money and message hammering away at conservatives; I want Alan Keyes lighting up the Right. I want Bush to be shoring up his credentials, instead of going after McCain on taxes and loyalty.

And, as a Bush man, what I don't want is to be spending my time proving my bona fides on issues like abortion. I've spent the better part of a year trying to define myself as a Republican with a broader message than that. I want abortion to go away as an issue, and Forbes and Keyes are going to try and make sure that I can't.

Look, it's not as if we're in any great danger. We've known for a while that we could lose New Hampshire; and while McCain is gaining in South Carolina, we're still well ahead there, in Michigan, and all across the country.

But do I want to have to go to South Carolina with a New Hampshire loss behind me, facing not just an energized John McCain but a multi-million dollar ad campaign and an electrifying speaker, both challenging my conservative credentials? Does that make the road to the nomination just a bit bumpier than we wanted it to be?

These are not tricky questions to answer.

ELECTION 2000

Iowa campaigns come to a head on caucus day (1-24-00)

Poll: McCain holds steady New Hampshire lead (1-24-00)

Video: Iowans get ready to make decisions at caucuses (1-24-00)

NHPrimary.com: Health care tops seniors' concerns (1-24-00)

Des Moines Register: Some see Iowa's leadoff role in jeopardy (1-24-00)

Des Moines Register: Caucusers say Iowa reflects nation as a whole (1-24-00)

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