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December 30, 1999
Web posted at: 10:41 p.m. EST (0341 GMT)

In this story: Africa: A continent of extremes Americas: Doing well, north and south Asia-Pacific: Reliance on technology Europe: Facing Y2K, united Middle East: Energy suppliers RELATED STORIES, SITES

(CNN) -- As the world prepares for all manner of possible Y2K turmoil, the readiness of individual nations varies widely.

Countries that are heavily automated have made the most progress, recognizing the danger the Y2K glitch could bring to their economies and infrastructures. Poorer nations with few computers are, by default, relatively insulated from the problem. However, those nations may rely on supplies from non-compliant sources.

While national governments may have the conversion process licked, provincial and local governments are at high risk of disruption. Analysts are also concerned about small- to medium-sized companies that lack either the resources or knowledge to tackle the bug.

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Electricity, telecommunications and health care seem to be the most problematic sectors around the world. Also, many transportation agencies are cutting back or halting air and ground service as a pre-emptive strike against Y2K.

Late-breaking information has been spotty. Computer industry analyst GartnerGroup last took a formal survey in October, and a representative said that another survey would have been futile because problematic nations would have overstated their readiness or just failed to respond.

"The defense mechanisms for these countries are in full gear," said Jim Duggan, vice president and research director for GartnerGroup. Duggan cited a recent allegation from a Russian general that the U.S. concerns about Russia's readiness were a Western plot to discredit Russia.

However, through general checks, GartnerGroup has found that remediation work has neither accelerated nor decelerated. Also, natural or political events have in some cases eclipsed Y2K fears.

"We were concerned about Venezuela," Duggan said, "but the rains and flooding have probably done substantially more damage than Y2K would ever do. Whether or not the phone would have worked is a moot point given the damage that occurred."

Duggan also said that nations used to problems won't have much of a problem with Y2K. According to Duggan, an Italian analyst explained, "Look, if the lights go out in Naples, we cheer and have another bottle of wine."

On the other hand, some nations, such as Japan and Germany, were so "overconfident" that any small Y2K problems may generate a more emotional response.

Iraq and Iran have taken a 'wait and see' attitude toward Y2K, doing virtually no remediation. They're going to fix things as they break, but their exposure is substantially lower than more industrialized nations.

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Like many other analysts, GartnerGroup is particularly concerned about the former Soviet states, especially Russia. That worry comes more from organizational problems than any specific device.

The following specific country assessments were provided by GartnerGroup, the U.S. State Department, news reports and the nations themselves.

Africa: A continent of extremes

• KENYA: Telecommunications may be a problem here, specifically telephone service. Kenya Power and Lighting reports to be ready, and the oil firm Kenya Pipeline Company has stockpiled 30 days of petroleum products.

• SOUTH AFRICA: The South African National Year 2000 Decision Support Center is confident that the most critical systems within national government are now Y2K-compliant. According to the U.S. State Department, it is improbable that South Africa will experience power or water failure, but government-owned electric utility Eskom is stocking up the energy supply chain. Telkom, South Africa's primary telecommunications network, reported itself to be 99.7 percent compliant in November. The provincial governments are worse, though, at only 83 percent compliance. They have been switched to focusing more on contingency plans than Y2K remediation. The Free State, Western Cape and Eastern Cape are especially in trouble, lacking most in the health sector.

• NIGERIA: In Nigeria, there is a risk of potential disruption in the key sectors of transportation, telecommunications, and public utilities, according to the State Department. Such disruptions may affect electric power and telephone service.

• NIGER: Niger has minimal health care services and facilities, most of which are located in the capital, Niamey. The availability of emergency services will be severely weakened by Y2K vulnerability. The local clinics and hospitals that have computerized equipment will wait until the new year to assess the effects of the Y2K bug. Civil aviation, electricity, telecommunications, water, and financial systems were recently declared acceptable or on target for completion by the local Y2K committee.

• SENEGAL: Although Senegal continues remediation efforts and contingency planning, it appears that there may be a risk of potential disruption in such key sectors as banking, telecommunications, electricity, water, fuel, public services, and health care. Ground transportation will not be an issue unless there are fuel shortages.

Americas: Doing well, north and south

• ARGENTINA: Argentina is not heavily reliant on computerized systems and is working with the international community to minimize any impact as a result of Y2K. The government established a Y2K commission in August of 1997 that has helped design and evaluate Y2K solutions for the country's social and economic infrastructure. Argentina continues remediation efforts and contingency planning, and appears to be prepared to deal with the Y2K problem. Disruptions may occur in hospital services, which are provided at the provincial and municipal levels where Y2K preparedness is not as advanced, although the federal government is working with the local governments to achieve Y2K compliance.

• BRAZIL: Brazil is moderately dependent on computers in its infrastructure and economy. Even though it was not Y2K-related, the power failure provided a number of lessons learned that were incorporated into their contingency plans. Fortunately, demand for power is expected to be quite low during the Y2K rollover, thus further reducing the risk of a power failure. In the water sector, there may be problems due to the fact that each state and municipality is responsible for its own water plants, and the preparations by those local governments has been mixed. The health sector in Brazil reflects the country's uneven development. Sao Paulo's Albert Einstein and Sirio Libanes hospitals are, for instance, probably as prepared for Y2K as the best U.S. hospitals. Many other institutions are clearly unprepared for Y2K.

• CANADA: Canada's advanced Y2K awareness is evident throughout all public and private sectors. Its efforts to address the Y2K problem are also highly advanced. The Canadian Government has instituted sophisticated coordinating mechanisms for addressing Y2K, readily shares information on its Y2K status, and has established a national Y2K Web site. The government has been very proactive, sending Y2K information packets to all households and major businesses. Canada is well prepared to deal with the Y2K problem.

• MEXICO: Mexico's systematic approach to Y2K remediation was adopted by the World Bank as a model for other countries seeking assistance in dealing with the millennium bug. It appears there is a low risk of potential Y2K disruptions in key sectors. Adequate manual overrides exist in computerized sectors, such as electricity and water. Mexico could experience localized Y2K problems in some services, such as the highly-automated communications sector. Mexican civil aviation authorities have advised that takeoffs and landings at Mexican airports will be suspended for the rollover weekend.

•VENEZUELA: Venezuela appears to be somewhat prepared to deal with the Y2K problem and is concentrating its efforts on contingency planning. Oil supplies, transportation, and social programs are all reported to be safe according to the Venezuelan government. However, electrical energy and medical technology are classified as "high risk."

Asia-Pacific: Reliance on technology

• AUSTRALIA: The federal government has confirmed all Commonwealth agencies and business entities are 100 percent Y2K ready after nearly three years of remediation. Officials revealed the federal government contributed $530 million of the $2 billion public sector Y2K spend preparing its agencies and departments for the year 2000 date change. The Queensland government has given Y2K the same emergency status as natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods and plagues. A potential for disruptions exist in the small business sectors.

• CHINA: Chinese Y2K remediation and contingency efforts have focused on critical infrastructure systems in these cities, which are generally well-prepared to deal with the Y2K problem. Reliance on computerized systems is much lower in the interior of China where Y2K will have a low impact. Although China continues remediation efforts and contingency planning, it appears there may be a risk of potential disruption in the key sectors of banking and finance, telecommunications, medical services, and in electrical power and infrastructure systems outside of the coastal cities.

Chinese authorities expect that any potential disruptions will be concentrated in small- and medium-sized enterprises, and that there is a moderate risk of potential disruption in freight-forwarding and distribution networks. One of China's leading nuclear experts has said that his company's reactors are Year 2000-ready and pose little danger. In a survey of some 3,000 firms earlier this year by the Hong Kong Productivity Council (HKPC), 20 percent of small organizations said they wouldn't be doing any work on Year 2000 preparations. Two major ports in China's Shenzhen province are planning to close for as much as nine hours to guard against Year 2000-related computer problems.

• INDIA: India has made great strides in Y2K readiness in the latter half of 1999 and seems unlikely to experience wide-scale disruptions in any of the 11 sectors defined by the Indian government to be most critical to the economy and most potentially vulnerable to Y2K disruption because of their high levels of automation. These 11 sectors are banking and finance, insurance, telecommunications, electric power generation, civil aviation, railways, petroleum and natural gas, ports, space, atomic energy, and defense. Unpredictable minor and isolated breakdowns of various kinds, some probably thoroughly annoying but not life-threatening, remain distinctly possible throughout the economy. However, breakdowns of all kinds are a fact of life in India, and Indians have developed elaborate backup capacities and alternative strategies to cope with almost any inconvenience that comes along.

• JAPAN: Japan is heavily reliant on computerized systems and appears to be generally well prepared to deal with the Y2K problem. Japan has moved rapidly on Y2K remediation to provide guidance, to require status reporting, and to increase awareness within Japan and in the region. The government most recent progress report indicates that Y2K readiness in the medical sector lags behind that of other key sectors of the economy. Japan will place 96,000 Self Defense Force troops on duty at bases across the nation on the evening of December 31 to deal with any year 2000-related problems. Government official have reported that they plan to carefully watch the Korean peninsula for any signs of movement in North Korea, should that country decide to welcome in the new year with any type of military action.

• SOUTH KOREA: South Korea has been pursuing an aggressive program of Y2K preparedness focusing on those areas that most impact the national economy and people's lives. The government is forming a nation-wide emergency response system to handle any potential crisis arising from Y2K. Korea plans to close banks and ATMs from December 31 through January 3.

• TAIWAN: The Taiwanese medical sector is likely to be affected, as many small- and medium-sized facilities will not have completed their Y2K conversion and will be forced to send their patients to larger hospitals. In addition, there is moderate risk of Y2K disruptions in some water services. Most large companies, utilities, shipping firms, telecommunications firms and financial institutions have fixed their systems. Taiwan will shut down all ATM machines for 36 hours.

• PAKISTAN: Pakistan is not very reliant on computer systems. It established a national-level Y2K task force with a national coordinator in November 1998. Both government and private entities, however, came to focus on Y2K only in late 1998 or early 1999. A late start and inadequate funding to address the Y2K problem suggests that Y2K disruptions are likely. Pakistan International Airways has canceled flights on December 31.

Europe: Facing Y2K, united

The European Commission's Year 2000 communications center will relay information among crisis centers set up by the 15 member states, but will not take any action itself. Eastern Europe is among those regions with such a frail infrastructure that many problems may not be noticed. However, aging institutions and a lack of resources could cause former Soviet Bloc states significant problems.

• BELGIUM: Assessments by a leading independent Y2K watchdog organization rank Belgium among the better-prepared countries. Key service providers in the telecommunications, energy and financial sectors, as well as other large businesses and the national government, appear to have taken appropriate steps to address Y2K concerns. Information on the preparedness of some regional government services and of small and medium-sized enterprises is less complete. Some transportation and financial services are shutting down for the weekend.

• FRANCE: France has made progress and developed contingency plans. Critical sectors are safe from disruption.

• ITALY: Italy will lower the risks of potential Y2K disruptions with greater progress in remediation and contingency planning, particularly in the fields of health care, telecommunications and, to a lesser extent, transportation.

• RUSSIA: U.S. government officials and analysts are concerned about all parts of Russian infrastructure, especially disruptions in energy supplies occurring during the harsh winter. The U.S. State Department is so concerned that it has authorized departure of some of its personnel from embassies in the country. It is also advising U.S. citizens to defer travel to Russia until the extent of disruptions become clear. A joint U.S.-Russian Y2K center has been established to monitor both countries' nuclear weapons in order to make sure no tragic misunderstandings occur. After significant assistance from other nations, most Russian nuclear power plants should be safe from Y2K. Still, a late start and little money to combat the problem is bound to bring widespread and unpredictable consequences.

• SPAIN: Spain appears to be in good shape for the Y2K rollover. The energy, telecommunications, and finance sectors have been prepared for some time. Civil aviation finished preparations on December 1. The public safety areas are prepared, although general public safety and transportation providers will be overtaxed due to millennium celebrations. The Spanish electric network was declared Y2K-compatible on September 30, 1999. Over three thousand employees, double the normal number for a holiday, will be at work during the rollover. • SWEDEN: Sweden has an extremely automated economy, which could both help and harm the nation. Sweden has made significant progress on remediation efforts, but even small glitches could have far-reaching impact on their wired economy. • UNITED KINGDOM: In October 1999, Action 2000 -- the task force overseeing preparations for Y2K -- reported that all major sectors and services were either at or nearing Y2K compliance. Ninety-eight percent of financial institutions are fully Y2K-compliant. It is doubtful that there will be significant Y2K-related disruptions.

Middle East: Energy suppliers

• ISRAEL: There is a moderate risk of potential disruption in key sectors, including electric power and telecommunications. Israel's electric power is provided by a single company that has been actively addressing the Y2K problem. No major or prolonged interruptions of electric power are expected, although isolated blackouts may occur. In telecommunications, Israel's three separate cellular telephone systems are Y2K-compliant and will function. However, widespread failure of landline phone network could cause an overload of the cellular networks. In the West Bank and Gaza, it appears that there also is a moderate risk of potential disruption in key sectors, including telecommunications and electric power. Basic services in the West Bank and Gaza are dependent on Israeli networks.

• SAUDI ARABIA: While Saudi Arabia appears to be generally prepared to deal with the Y2K problem, remediation efforts and contingency planning continue. At the present time it appears that there remains a moderate risk of potential short-term disruption in the telecommunications and electric power sectors. The Saudi government remains concerned about the impact of the Y2K problem on health care providers. There is a plan to concentrate resources to ensure the functioning of at least one hospital in each major population center. Saudi Arabian oil facilities seem to be well-prepared for the rollover.

• OMAN: According to the chairman of Oman's national Y2K task force, all critical sectors, including the health sector, have completed remedial Y2K activities and are expected to be 100 percent compliant. Sector contingency plans and a cross-sector national contingency plan have been completed and tested.

• UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: The UAE appears to be well prepared to deal with the Y2K problem. While there are never any guarantees, inquiries and research have so far suggested that the UAE is remarkably well prepared for Y2K, and that there is so far no evidence indicating the possibility of potential disruptions in any key sectors.

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